At the end of 2002, beginning of 2003, when the country was sinking into a frightful social crisis and the disenchantment with politics was summed up as "they all go away", Néstor Kirchner saw a hole to get in and seek the
presidency
.
One of the first consultants that joined to measure it, via
Alberto Fernández
, was
Equis
.
The man from Santa Cruz appeared mixed with the margin of error until Eduardo Duhalde anointed him as the official candidate of the PJ.
But that is history of a distant past.
The connection to the present?
In charge of that pollster was
Artemio López
, a respected sociologist who later became an ultra K polemicist. And next to him worked another analyst,
Martín Romeo
, who later created his own consulting firm.
Always close to the Kirchner/Christian world, from
Solo Comunicación
he now
went out to
thoroughly measure
Javier Milei
, the candidate who had already earned a place but Cristina Kirchner decided to place in the center of the ring.
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chooses
2023
Clarín
agreed this Wednesday to the study that evaluated the libertarian economist in the district that keeps the vice president awake: the province of Buenos Aires.
This is a survey of "
1,348 residents over the age of 15
" there, "
with the knowledge and evaluation of Milei
."
Beyond the numbers, the conclusions of these results are interesting.
"Milei is today the" marshal's baton" that a broad sector of society seizes to extend the punishment that began in 2019 against Cambiemos, continued in 2021 against the FDT and is presented today as an electoral threat for 2023 ", sums
up
Romeo .
How the people of Buenos Aires see Milei
The first table that shows the survey is the classic image.
At a quantitative level, the deputy of La Libertad Avanza does not escape the logic that surrounds politicians today.
He has more rejection than support.
In his case,
57% negative against 43% positive
.
Solo Comunicación's study on Javier Milei.
The balance of his image, like most politicians, is negative.
Then, to make a more qualitative analysis of the Libertarian candidate, another classic of pollsters is appealed to.
"
If I tell you Javier Milei, what word or words come to mind?
Tell me all those words that spontaneously occur to you".
The "cloud of words" when asked about the figure of Javier Milei.
From the results, according to the mentions, what is known as a "cloud of words" is made.
In the case of the economist, at a glance they stand out:
"Crazy", "Bad", "Dangerous"
, within the negative ones;
"Good", "Intelligent", "Hope"
, among the positive ones, which are smaller.
As the study explains, once the enumeration of words that arise spontaneously has been completed,
the meaning of the associated words is inquired
through the following phrasing: "When you say (associated word/s) what do you mean with that word?” The combination of the set of words and associations are recategorized in dimensions of analysis arising from previous quantitative studies.
How the people of Buenos Aires rate Javier Milei, according to four attributes that a politician must have.
Thus, it seeks to evaluate the candidate in four key areas for a leader: Management, Personality, Communication and Ability. Milei has a positive balance in two and a negative balance in the other two.
In Management, it shows differential in favor + 53% / - 47%;
and in Skill, +55% / - 45%.
Instead, in Communication it ends + 29% / - 71%;
and in Personality, +31% / -69%.
analyst look
What do these results imply?
Romeo
explains
:
"The
social representation of Javier Milei
, strictly speaking, is
absolutely dissimilar to that of common leaders
both because of his morphology and because of the weight of the positive and negative assessments of each dimension."
"The dimension of
political ability
is, normally in proportions, the least relevant (10%) in the representation of the ideal leader that people imagine; that is, it is the dimension that should have the least volume. In the case of Milei, it is the most voluminous (52%) This dimension refers to attributes of intelligence, ability, mischief, vivacity; standing out from the rest."
"On the other hand, the dimension of
management capacity
is the second in importance (30%) in the representation of an ideal leader; but in the case of Milei it is the most depressed dimension (2%).
Milei's lack of experience in executive positions
of a public nature is a certain fact; however, the dimension of management capacity goes beyond experience and is also related to knowledge of the country's problems, preparation to govern, surrounding oneself with trained people, acting firmly, knowing lead and be prepared to face difficult situations. Milei clearly disapproves of this subject."
"Milei constitutes a kind of
blank sheet
that those who express their intention to vote for him complete in a
sui generis
way , including the possibility that the contents and desires that they project onto him are conflicting, incompatible and incongruous."
Vice President Cristina Kirchner, last Thursday, in the act where she questioned Javier Milei without naming him.
PHOTO Reuters
"Different polls agree that public opinion considers that the country's socioeconomic situation is negative, that the country's course is wrong and that we are facing a crisis that requires 'a storm pilot'. The electoral preference for Milei, whom the vast majority do not see management attributes to precisely 'manage' the way out of a crisis, it must necessarily be read as an
indicator of the anguish that broad sectors of society have with the present, the frustration at the lack of certainty in the future horizon and the lack of response from the two great coalitions
".
"It should be interpreted almost as a
cry for help that speaks more of the claim to the traditional political leadership than of Milei himself,
who in his personal attributes is mostly associated as someone 'delusional, deranged, a liar, dangerous and crazy.'"
look also
A survey confirms the fear of Cristina Kirchner and shows the Frente de Todos third for a STEP
Elections 2023: a new survey has already measured the last three candidates who ran for president