The Bavarian Business Association (vbw) expects the economy in Bavaria to stagnate this year.
A recession will probably be avoided.
There are some stumbling blocks.
Munich - The Association of Bavarian Business (vbw) does not expect any growth this year.
"The economy in Bavaria is treading water," said President Wolfram Hatz on Tuesday at the presentation of the half-yearly vbw index in Munich.
The forecast is therefore somewhat more positive than at the turn of the year.
At that time, experts expected gross domestic product to fall by 0.3 percent in 2023.
The overall index, which is made up of the current situation and expectations for growth and employment in Bavaria, fell from 103 to 101 points in autumn.
The index ranges from zero to 200. The average since calculations began in 2004 is 115 points.
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Bavarian economy: Probably no growth in 2023 - "Economy is treading water".
© Wang Jianwei/dpa
High energy prices, inflation and a shortage of skilled workers are slowing down the Bavarian economy
"Although we will be able to avoid a recession, an upswing is not in sight," said Hatz.
The expectations for the business situation improved from 70 to 89 points.
"The prospects for companies in Bavaria are no longer as pessimistic as they were in autumn," said Hatz.
However, there can be no question of genuine confidence.
"In order for us to gain momentum again, at least in the medium term, we have to invest in our location and our competitiveness now."
The assessment of the current economic situation fell by one point to 108 points.
As in the previous year, braking factors include high energy prices, inflation and a shortage of skilled workers and workers.
The index for the employment situation deteriorated from 122 to 102 points.
But that was solely due to the higher unemployment, which in turn only rose because of the statistical recording of Ukrainian refugees, said Hatz.
The forecast index fell from 110 to 106 points.
(dpa/row)
List of rubrics: © Wang Jianwei/dpa
