Record temperatures like those experienced in late April in the western Mediterranean would have been “extremely unlikely” without human-induced climate change on the planet.
That concludes a group of researchers, specialized in the attribution of extreme phenomena, in a report released this Friday.
These experts from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) have analyzed "the three-day heat wave event" that occurred between April 26 and 28 in the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula, northern Morocco and western Algeria. .
And they argue that global warming has made that record-breaking episode at least 100 times more likely.
The climate crisis—triggered by humans after many decades of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to the use of fossil fuels—has increased the intensity and duration of many extreme events, such as heat waves.
It is one of the conclusions of the scientists dedicated to the study of climate change and which is also included in the latest review carried out by the IPCC, the panel of experts linked to the UN.
But heat waves, like other extreme events, have always occurred on Earth.
What WWA specialists are dedicated to is analyzing the role that climate change now plays in specific events, such as the one that shook the western Mediterranean at the end of April.
Scientists and meteorological agencies from France, Morocco, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom have participated in this study.
What they have basically done is analyze the probability that a heat wave of these dimensions would have occurred if the global average temperature had not already increased by 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels due to human action.
In their analysis, the experts explain that such an episode has a 0.25% probability of occurring each year according to the models they use to study these phenomena.
Those figures lead them to "the qualitative conclusion that temperatures as high as those observed would have been extremely unlikely if human activities had not warmed the climate by 1.2 degrees."
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Fatima Driouech, a professor at the Mohammed VI Polytechnic University of Morocco and one of the authors of the study, explained that the temperatures recorded in the region in April are those observed in July and August, which is why the episode has been unusual.
And she has influenced that several records have been broken.
For example: local temperatures in many regions of Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria in April were up to 20 degrees higher than normal and in Córdoba it reached 38.8 degrees, a record never recorded in mainland Spain since at minus 1961 at this time of the year.
The extreme heat adds to a drought that is also hitting the region, as recalled Friederike Otto, from the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment.
These record temperatures added to a historic multi-year drought in those regions, exacerbating the impacts of heat on agriculture, which is already threatened by increasing water scarcity as a result of the combined effect of climate change and uses. affected the WWA.
In addition, "this heat wave has come at a critical time for the harvest season in the western Mediterranean countries," the report added.
"Unfortunately, the future will not be better," lamented Driouech, because water resources will be further reduced, with which there will be more impacts on agriculture, people, the economy...
express analysis
The attribution report presented this Friday comes to light just a week after the event analyzed, a record time, so it has not been able to be reviewed by peers (the control method used in scientific studies), as indicated Otto.
But this researcher has added that the models they use to reach their conclusions have passed this quality control.
“The science we use is peer-reviewed,” Otto has summarized.
WWA researchers have also highlighted the impact that these episodes have on people's health, especially if they are early heat waves (although we will have to wait to find out the consequences of this episode).
That is why Driouech has stated that episodes as extraordinary as the one experienced this April make it "more urgent" to mitigate climate change by cutting emissions, but also to adapt to the impacts of this crisis.
Precisely, the report presented this Friday stresses that "heat-related deaths have decreased in cities with urban planning for extreme heat."
“This has proven to be effective in Spain, and especially in Lisbon (Portugal), where the urban heat island effect has been reduced by incorporating more green and blue spaces,” adds WWA.
“In addition, early warning systems for heat, simple self-protection behaviors such as drinking enough water, city heat action plans, strong social ties, and improved risk perception have been shown to they reduce the impacts on health related to heat”, this researcher abounds.
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