No Ukraine conquest for Putin: USA see signs of rethinking – ceasefire possible?

Russia still has major problems in the Ukraine war.

US secret services now consider a rethinking of Putin possible.

Kiev/Moscow – Vladimir Putin and his ministers in the Ukraine war keep talking about wanting to “denazify” neighboring Russia.

With the annexation of several stretches of land, the Kremlin regime wanted to create territorial facts at the same time.

The reality is now very different: the Russian army is still biting on granite in many places.

In view of the difficulties, Putin could now step up his ambitions in Ukraine, according to information from the US intelligence services.

Meanwhile, Moscow is focused on the limited goal of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, said Avril Haines, director of the US National Intelligence Service.

"He may be willing to claim at least a temporary victory roughly related to the territory he occupies," Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

In this way, Putin could also indirectly take up a piece of advice from Yevgeny Prigozhin.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Rudnyovo Industrial Park in Moscow.

(archive photo)

© Artem Geodakyan/AFP

Ukraine war decimates Russia: "It will take a while"

US Defense Intelligence director Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier added that it could take up to a decade for Russia to replenish its troops.

"It's going to be a while before they catch up," Berrier said, according to the

.

"Estimates range from five to 10 years, depending on how the sanctions affect them and their ability to re-equip their forces with technology."

At the beginning of the Russian invasion, Moscow apparently still assumed that it would be easy and that it would be able to advance to Kiev in a short time.

In the meantime, however, the armed forces have been fighting fierce battles with the Ukrainian army for more than a year - but only in the south and east of the country.

In recent months, Russian attempts to conquer more areas have failed, also in view of the high losses on the battlefield.

Haines said Russia is now suffering from severe manpower and ammunition shortages.

Most recently, Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, also complained several times about a shortage of ammunition.

Ukraine War: The Origins of the Conflict with Russia

Ukraine War: The Origins of the Conflict with Russia

After high Russian losses: does Putin want a ceasefire?

The assessments from the US could raise hopes that Putin is aiming for a ceasefire in order to be able to rebuild his decimated troops.

However, this could also prolong the conflict and demand further support from the West for Ukraine.

Haines stressed that Kiev remains highly dependent on Western arms.

"We continue to believe that Putin most likely believes that time is working in his favor and that prolonging the war is the best way to secure Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine," the intelligence director said.

However, Russia will need “years of reconstruction” in order to “represent a conventional military threat to Europe” in the future.

Until then, the Kremlin must be careful not to become even more dependent on China.

(nak)

List of rubrics: © IMAGO/Sergei Bobylev