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Russia revenge for Kremlin attack? Expert sees “danger of double escalation”

2023-05-06T06:28:52.024Z


Ukraine is apparently attacking supply lines of the Russian army and allegedly even the Kremlin. Kyiv denies. Sergey Lavrov announces consequences, and an expert warns.


Ukraine is apparently attacking supply lines of the Russian army and allegedly even the Kremlin.

Kyiv denies.

Sergey Lavrov announces consequences, and an expert warns.

Munich/Moscow – what was going on there?

The Moscow regime reports an alleged drone attack on the Kremlin during the Ukraine war.

Responsibility is shifted to Kiev, which immediately denies it.

Instead, not only the Ukrainian government accuses the Kremlin of staging.

Alleged drone attack on the Kremlin: Moscow blames Kiev and the USA

Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused the US of alleged involvement in the incident in the middle of Russia.

Washington categorically rejected this.

A mess is complete, with another threat from Moscow representing the next episode.

Because: After the drone incident on the Kremlin premises, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has now announced "concrete actions".

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Russia Discusses Appropriate Response to Drone Attack

But numerous experts accuse the Kremlin of deliberate staging.

© IMAGO/Kremlin Red Square CCTV

"It is absolutely clear that the terrorists in Kiev could not have done this without the knowledge of their 'patrons'," Lavrov said this Friday (May 5) on the sidelines of a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in southern Indian Goa according to the Russian news agency Tass.

"We will respond with concrete actions."

Drones in Moscow: Russia's staging?

Coming from Ukraine?

According to his version, on Wednesday night (May 3), the Ukrainian armed forces directed two drones into the Russian capital in order to kill Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Videos of the alleged drones being shot down near Red Square were avidly shared on Twitter.

For days there have also been attacks on fuel depots in Crimea and on Russian army supply lines on the border.

Former US General Ben Hodges, for example, sees this as targeted preparations for the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

But: To what extent are Western secret services involved?

And did they even play a role in the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin?

I am convinced that the Russians are very nervous.

That they want to use it to motivate the war.

Jean Asselborn, Luxembourg's Foreign Minister, on the drone incident in Moscow

"There are no reliable sources here," explains the German military expert Ralph D. Thiele from the Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Consulting (ISPSW) in the Schweizer

Blick

: "At least one hears from circles of special forces that a few Western Help and support states to prepare intelligence for acts of sabotage on Russian soil.”

Military Expert: Ukrainian Actors Could 'Go Over the Lines'

At the same time, in his view, there is concern as to whether “these actions are being carried out with sufficient thought and restraint.

And that at least some Ukrainian actors could go too far here.

The real concern of the West is an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict,” he says.

He does not believe that the drones on the Kremlin premises were launched from Ukraine.

“The drones used in this mission were too small to cover the approximately 600-kilometer route from Ukraine to Moscow.

They were probably launched from Russian soil - by whom, however, remains unanswered," explains the 69-year-old military expert to

Blick

: "After all, a UJ-22 Airborne drone left Ukraine a week ago in the direction of Moscow made before it crashed just outside the Russian capital, apparently due to lack of fuel.”

Ukraine drone attacks on Russia: military expert warns

Does he think a nuclear response from Moscow, as demanded by Putin confidant Dmitry Rogozin, is possible because of the Ukrainian counter-offensive?

He remains secret.

In general, there is a risk of a double escalation, “successively or simultaneously.

Vertical escalation means more troops, more weapons, more devastation and violence up to and including the first use of tactical nuclear weapons," explains Thiele.

Horizontal escalation means a "conflagration that could also affect Ukraine's neighboring countries and even distant regions such as Africa".

Not only Thiele, but also the military experts at the US think tank "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) believe that Ukraine is not responsible for the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin.

"Russia likely staged this attack to expose the war to a domestic Russian audience and to create conditions for broader societal mobilization," the ISW wrote in its daily situation report on Thursday (May 4).

Drones over the Kremlin in Moscow: ISW thinks there is a Russian staging behind it

Among other things, the fact that the military administration in Moscow had significantly expanded the capital's air defenses since the beginning of the war would speak in favor of a staging.

The ISW experts consider it unthinkable that two drones would then advance as far as the government district.

Even the experienced diplomat Jean Asselborn does not rule out a staging of Russia.

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Believes in a Ukrainian victory: Ex-US General Ben Hodges (3rd from right) on "Maybrit Illner" on ZDF.

To his right is the Luxembourg Foreign Minister, Jean Asselborn.

© Screenshot ZDF

“What happened to those two drones: I am convinced that the Russians are very nervous.

That they want to use it to motivate the war," said the Luxembourg Foreign Minister on "Maybrit Illner" on ZDF: "People in Russia no longer understand this war at all.

The essence of Putin's regime is war.

And if Putin loses the war, he's gone."

(pm)

Rubric list image: © IMAGO/Kremlin Red Square CCTV

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-05-06

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