The Royal Spanish Academy defines the
useful vote
as that
"vote that before a decision is issued in favor of an option that, even though it is not the preferred one, has a greater chance of defeating another whose triumph is not desired"
.
Channel the vote against.
This scheme would serve both the anti-Kirchnerists who end up voting for
Javier Milei
because they do not want the Frente de Todos to remain in power, and the anti-macristas who would prefer Javier Milei over Patricia Bullrich or Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
Ergo, the one who wins is Milei, if the voters on the night of the PASO of August 13 perceive him as the one who can prevent Cristina Kirchner from continuing in power or Macri's disciples from returning to power.
And the same logic could be used in the province of Buenos Aires.
By way of example, according to some national surveys, Milei can get 26.5% of the votes, and then behind, individually, Larreta, Bullrich, Manes, Massa, Scioli, Wado de Pedro, etc.
If that night the electorate perceives that the most voted are Milei, Larreta and Massa;
or Milei, Bullrich and De Pedro;
or Milei, Massa, Bullrich;
o Milei, Larreta, Scioli,
the useful vote will focus on the first two places
and could polarize the presidential campaign between Milei-Larreta;
Milei-Bullrich;
Milei Massa.
The third, from Together for Change or from Kirchnerism, would be left out of the discussion.
Javier Miley.
For this logic not to be activated, Milei must be the third candidate with the most votes behind one of Together for Change and whoever represents Kirchnerism.
Otherwise, if she comes out first or second, the JxC or Frente de Todos candidate runs the risk of being relegated to third place in the October election and
being left out of the ballot.
To avoid this scenario in which the libertarian secures a place in the presidential runoff or becomes the decision maker for the re-election of Axel Kicillof or the arrival of the Juntos por el Cambio candidate in the Province, the opposition and in the Kirchnerism must have
unique candidates both at the national and Buenos Aires level
.
Cristina can figure it out;
Macri does not understand it, and at this point it would be impossible.
In some private talks, Cristina Kirchner has made it clear that she does not want to STEP.
She understood that Kirchnerism is very weak and the presence of several competitors would not give more volume to the space, but would show that weakness.
From there derived the rumor that she would be a candidate for the Presidency, as a way to turn off the nominations of other leaders and order.
The Frente de Todos -or whatever it is going to be called in these elections because the name is worn out and links to the management of Alberto Fernández- is one of the most at
risk
of coming out third.
In fact, it is where it is today in most of the polls that ask what political space you would vote for if the elections were held today.
He needs more than anyone a single candidate for the presidency and another for the governorship.
Massa to the presidency and Kicillof to the province.
Could be.
But another variable has emerged in recent days
that further complicates
the electoral terrain in the Buenos Aires district.
When the Ministry of the Interior approves that in these elections the legislators of the unproductive and inept Parlasur -43 in total and whose election will cost about $5 billion- are also voted for, the sheet ballot in the Province will add one more
cloth
.
With which, first the presidential candidate will be seen, then the list of national deputies, that of national senators, the representatives of Parlasur, and
only after
the Buenos Aires governor.
Virtually anyone can be governor if he does well with the presidential candidate.
Bullrich, Santilli, Angelini, Larreta, Macri, De Andreis, Ritondo and Vidal, together in the photo at Triaca's house,
Hence, Kicillof is evaluated as presidential in the event that Massa is trapped in the tangle of inflation and the economic crisis.
Not to win the presidency, but to retain the Province.
On the other side, the problem is bigger.
Unlike Cristina, Macri never designed a strategy
but rather was part of the internal one that ended up cracking the PRO.
He never established a small table with Larreta and Bullrich, if you will also Vidal, to define who were the best candidates and in which districts, to avoid fights and disputes that were supposed to be practices of Kirchnerism.
For this reason, the referents of his party maintain a fight in the City where it is not defined if between Jorge Macri and Fernán Quirós there will be the candidate of the PRO, or if because he wants to make sure that he does not leave the City to Martín Lousteau who is supposedly a partner within Together for Change, he will turn to María Eugenia Vidal, whom until recently he promoted for the presidential elections.
In the Province it is less clear.
Radicalism, the Civic Coalition and Bullrich believe that there should be a single list with a candidate for governor, legislators and mayors.
But Larreta proposes that each presidential candidate go with their candidate for governor, because otherwise, below, call them the candidates for mayors, they will not even campaign to have their place secured.
“We are talking about a profound change but if we don't win the Province, there won't be any of that.
Here there are a lot of tactics but no strategy
, ”
says a JxC operator.
As in many other items, there is no consensus.
The fight in the PRO has led the opposition coalition to a high-risk situation, when they believed that returning to power would be a formality, and the specter of decomposition begins to haunt them.
Today no one assures that the sum of the votes obtained in the PASO Rodríguez Larreta, Bullrich, Morales and/or Manes, for now the presidential candidates, will go to the one who wins the internship in October, and they do not flee to the Milei option , the other anti-K alternative. Because
they have ceased to be a homogeneous and consensual space to give way to a permanent internal one
, the product of absent leadership and the lack of a clear strategy.
look too
Bid between Macri and Larreta;
Cristina and Milei's breakthrough
look too
Javier Milei has already decided his running mate and Mauricio Macri confesses his worst nightmare
