Clarín
advanced a national survey this Friday with a bombshell for the Government: there, among the
poorest sectors
, the
Frente de Todos
appeared
second
behind
Juntos por el Cambio
and fighting vote by vote with
Javier Milei
.
The same study contains other information that also impacts the ruling party, with an unexpected winner for its inmate.
The study is from
Opinaia
, a pioneer consultancy in online measurements and which has the City Government among its clients.
Between April 22 and 30, it evaluated
2,000 cases across the country
and presented the results with +/- 2.2% margin of error.
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As this newspaper advanced, a trend that runs through the entire report is the
growth of Milei
.
That is not only reflected among the most neglected sectors.
It is a phenomenon with a transversality that, at least in public opinion polls, never ceases to surprise.
An example?
Opinaia is one of the few consultancies that evaluates
electoral floors and ceilings
of the main forces.
That they ceased to be exclusively those of the crack and incorporated the libertarians.
With these results:
- La Libertad Avanza, the seal that Milei already used in 2021, appears with a 24% sure vote, 39% probable vote (which, added together, gives it a ceiling above 60 points) and a rejection / never would vote 38%.
The latest national survey of Opinaia.
Electoral floors and ceilings of the main coalitions.
- It is followed
by Together for Change
, with a
floor of 14%
, a
ceiling of 50%
(when 36% of the probable vote is added) and a
rejection/I would never vote for it of 49%
.
- The
Frente de Todos
, meanwhile, closes with a
15% floor/sure vote
,
35% ceiling
(20% probable vote) and
65% rejection
.
The numbers for the STEP
Then comes the most anticipated electoral question, facing the PASO of August 13:
"If next Sunday you voted for president of the Nation and the following lists and candidacies were presented, who would you vote for?"
The offer is diverse, with
17 leaders
: six from Juntos por el Cambio, five from the Frente de Todos, three from the Left Front, two from Peronismo no K and Javier Milei.
When looking at the graph, there are several strong facts:
- With half a dozen applicants, Juntos takes only one point from Milei: 27% to 26%.
- Milei, only surpasses the five candidates of the Frente de Todos, who finishes third.
- Out of this cake of three, the left and non-K Peronism have marginal numbers.
The latest national survey of Opinaia.
Surprise on the PASO stage for the presidential election.
But the most interesting thing, or another of the very interesting things, comes with the internal reading of each force.
In Juntos, for example,
Vidal still appears included
: the survey was done before it was downloaded.
And the former governor is second, with 6%, behind
Patricia Bullrich
, who
clearly leads with 12%
.
And Larreta?
The head of government is just
third with 5%
.
As consolation for the Larretista bunker,
this survey is online
and it is assumed that the toughest applicants, such as Bullrich or Milei, benefit here, because this type of survey would be answered by the most informed public and involved in the crack.
Returning to the Juntos numbers, Gerardo Morales (2%), Elisa Carrió (1%) and Miguel Pichetto (1%)
complete the distance .
Total 27%, just one more than the lonely Milei.
The latest national survey of Opinaia.
In the data by space, you see the growth of libertarians.
As for the official PASO, in a scattered bid, Axel Kicillof appears first. The governor has already said that he wants to run for re-election in Buenos Aires, but no one dares to drop him from the national race yet, especially if he doesn't play for Cristina and Sergio Massa continues to be unable to tame inflation.
In the official figures,
the governor reaches 9%
, against
5% for Massa and 5% for Daniel Scioli
, the other variant that, it is assumed, could achieve a certain internal consensus.
More postponed close
Wado de Pedro (3%) and Juan Grabois (1%)
.
They complete: Juan Schiaretti 2% and Juan Manuel Urtubey 0.3%, for the PJ no K;
Nicolás del Caño 1%, Myriam Bregman 1% and Gabriel Solano 0.2%, for the Left Front;
plus 4% blank/null and 15% undecided.
When looking at the evolution of the data, there are also interesting trends: Juntos fell compared to last month, and Frente de Todos rose and, above all, Milei's libertarians.
look too
Elections 2023: a new survey in the lower class turns on all the alerts of the Government
Javier Milei has already decided his running mate and Mauricio Macri confesses his worst nightmare