Clarín columnist Ignacio Zuleta often points out in his articles that the vote of Argentines, historically, is much more stable than some analyses suggest. With captive majority groups and others smaller but decisive, because according to their oscillation they can define the election to one side (Peronism) or the other (non-Peronism).
Much of this is what has been seen so far in the five gubernatorial elections that opened the year in which the vote for president will be held. There were strong ruling parties in Río Negro, Jujuy, La Rioja and Misiones, and half a surprise in Neuquén, where the provincial Popular Movement was defeated after 60 years.
Why average and not whole surprise? Because the one who defeated the official MPN was a national deputy of that same space, Rolando Figueroa, who dissatisfied with the closing of candidacies decided to assemble a parallel force and, with the support of PRO leaders such as Mauricio Macri, ended up defeating his ex? Allies.
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Argentina chooses 2023
The other central fact is that, for the moment, there is no transfer of votes from the ascendant Javier Milei (in the national polls) to the candidates who play on his behalf in local disputes. Only one of them reached double digits of voting intention.
It also confirms a trend in local elections that has been going on for several years. Pure Kirchnerist expressions seem to be on the way to extinction. In the best of cases, as in La Rioja, they are coupled to constructions of traditional Peronism.
Powerful officialdoms
One of the doubts regarding the provincial elections, and even the national one, is what will happen to the ruling parties. There is a phenomenon that is no longer local but global, which shows governments weakened, partly due to the pandemic effect, it is presumed.
The first bid that confirmed the strength of the provincial constructions in management was Río Negro, on April 16. There, current Senator Alberto Weretilneck won comfortably over the candidate of Together for Change. The former governor arrived with the help of various allies, including La Cámpora, which in this case preferred to join a winning force than to lose again from the hand of the space led by Minister Martín Soria.
Much more forceful was the triumph, this last Sunday, of the Frente Renovador de la Concordia in Misiones. The party that Carlos Rovira manages with an iron fist returned to nominate former president Hugo Passalacqua and swept as four years ago, when he had taken about 40 points of advantage.
The flip side was Kirchnerism, which with two different expressions barely exceeded 6 points (between them). In 2019, only one of the same candidates had reached 8%.
The most traditional ruling parties at the national level also became strong in La Rioja and Jujuy. In the first case, with the Peronist Ricardo Quintela; in the second, with the radical Carlos Sadir, an ally of Gerardo Morales. Both won comfortably, as the polls predicted.
Separate paragraph for Morales. Although the head of the UCR can hardly consolidate his presidential candidacy, since he is very relegated with respect to Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich, he did manage to ratify his hegemony in a province of the North, traditionally Peronist, which he conquered in 2015 and now for the first time he had to defend without his name at the top of the list.
Milei candidates do not start
Another common line that these provincial elections are beginning to draw is Milei's difficulty in transferring votes to local candidates. The two expressions that led to the drawing of a lion on their ballots, in Río Negro and Neuquén, did not reach 10% of the votes.
This Sunday there was a bigger bet, with a famous surname in La Rioja: Martín Menem was the candidate of La Libertad Avanza – the same nomenclature that Milei used in 2021 in the City – and the libertarian economist went to campaign for him.
It was hoped that this combination could hit a jump and get the second place in the race. It didn't happen. Together for Change remained in that position, as in 2019, and Martín Menem barely reached 15%. Fact: four years ago, the one who completed the podium was another Peronist, Beder Herrera, and exceeded 20 points.
As expected, from JxC they came out to accuse Milei of dividing the vote with the nephew of the former president of La Rioja and thus favor the re-election of Quintela. It is a debate that has just begun and can be transferred to other key districts, such as the province of Buenos Aires.
Next Sunday, in Tucumán, there will be another litmus test for the controversial alliances promoted by the libertarian leader. There he plays with Ricardo Bussi, son of the former governor convicted of crimes against humanity. Voting will also take place in La Pampa, San Juan, Tierra del Fuego and Salta.
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