"Heating theater" - but above all migration: How the AfD benefits from the traffic light dispute

Just before the refugee summit, the AfD is experiencing a soaring popularity in the polls. One expert sees the party benefiting from immigration and "heating theater."

Tutzing/Munich - Some sentences suddenly catch up with you. At the end of November, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) said in the Bundestag that there was "no major migration crisis" in Germany. What's more, anyone who claims the opposite is helping the AfD. To the Social Democrat's credit, almost half a year has passed since then. But even then, many municipalities warned against being overwhelmed and called for more help from the federal government. And as far as the AfD is concerned, it turns out that the opposite is true.

AfD in the polls: Because of "theater about heaters", but above all because of migration

While federal politicians are postponing the migration issue, referring from one summit to the next, and reacting with incomprehension to the demands of the municipalities, the populists are pleased with growing popularity. A recent poll by the Insa Institute for Bild sees the party at 16.5 percent, three and a half points behind the SPD, two and a half points ahead of the Greens. About one in four eligible voters can now imagine voting for the AfD. And in the east, where three state elections will take place next year, the party is scratching the 30 percent mark in places.

Nancy Faeser is under pressure ahead of the refugee summit. © Montage: Imago/political-moments/epd

This may not only be due to the pressing migration problem, but also. In any case, the AfD is playing on the issue that it flushed into the Bundestag with force in 2017. "The drama surrounding the heaters may also play a role," political scientist Ursula Münch told the Münchner Merkur. "But the main issue from which the AfD benefits is certainly immigration." In doing so, it is also counting on people's growing concerns. According to Deutschlandtrend, 52 percent of respondents are in favor of taking in fewer refugees.

Refugee summit with Scholz: AfD is a beneficiary - expert expects "dispute in the traffic light"

The fact that a tougher course is emerging before the refugee summit on Wednesday in Berlin is something the AfD claims as a success for itself as a matter of course. The First Parliamentary Secretary of the Bundestag group, Bernd Baumann, said on Tuesday that the other parties would take over their positions. "They're turning on now." This is due to the fear that the AfD will soon become even stronger.

The game is well known. The AfD is likely to be less of a driver than a beneficiary. It is true that the pressure from the municipalities forces the traffic light to act. In order to ensure more control, Faeser has now spoken out in favour of a preliminary asylum check at the EU's external borders; Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) thought aloud about a fence on RTL/ntv. The fact that the demand for asylum procedures at the EU's external border comes from the SPD, of all people, is particularly surprising for political scientist Münch. "That will still cause a dispute in the traffic lights." (mmä