Attack on underwater infrastructure: Putin could probably strike again

Vladimir Putin during a naval exercise. NATO fears that Russia could attack Western infrastructure. © Sergei Savostyanov/Kremlin Pool/imago

Is Western infrastructure threatened? Putin has probably had underwater cables mined. NATO is aware of the danger and is ramping up its defenses.

Moscow – Is Vladimir Putin expanding the Ukraine war? Experts have been warning of this danger since the outbreak of fighting in February 2022. But previous speculation about a drastic shift in the front, a possible attack on neighboring countries or a reaction from NATO has so far largely failed to materialize. But at the beginning of May, a British investigation caused a stir that sees the Western underwater infrastructure in danger – NATO also spoke of a corresponding threat. Frigate Captain Göran Swistek considers a possible act of sabotage "very likely". It's about mines and sluggish action by the West.

After attack on Nord Stream: In the Ukraine war, the West fears further attacks on infrastructure

Review: On September 26, 2022, in the midst of the Ukraine war, several explosions occurred on the Nord Stream pipelines, which transported large quantities of Russian gas to Germany in peacetime. Initially, an unexpected drop in pressure was noticed, but a little later, experts discovered several leaks in about 70 meters. The West, as well as Russia, are assuming an attack. Although the gas pipeline carried little gas at the time, the case made it dramatically clear how fragile Europe's energy infrastructure really is.

The British Times is now making an international impression with a new investigation. The media outlet argues that Russia may have mined parts of Western underwater infrastructure. Frigate Captain Gregor Siwstek told ZDF that such a scenario was "very likely". Indications of this are exercises and new capabilities of the Russian military in the underwater area. In addition, there have been repeated "suspicious" activities by Russian ships along critical infrastructure in recent years.

Is the West's infrastructure in danger? NATO warns of sabotage by Russia

As the Times writes in its research, NATO has expressed corresponding concerns. It relies on information from companies that operate oil and gas rigs, pipelines, power connections and telecommunications cables. Since last February, there has therefore been a "Coordination Office for Critical Underwater Infrastructures", which is headed by Lieutenant General Hans-Werner Wiermann, a retired German military officer. The main goal: to find out exactly what Russia is up to.

It is planned that the expert group will present a report at an upcoming NATO meeting in July 2023 and keep an eye on the situation with regard to critical infrastructure. Recently, there have always been positions in NATO circles that have felt that such a position is necessary. An unnamed NATO official told the Times about Russia's possible sabotage plans: "If Russia attacks one of our onshore power plants, it's war. If the Russians sabotage one of our underwater pipelines or cables, they can deny it."

Because of the Ukraine war: Putin could attack other targets in the West after Nord Stream

Months ago, various intelligence services in Europe had already warned of suspicious activities by Russia. Again and again, civilian ships have been spotted off the coasts of Western nations. It was suspected that the Kremlin could pursue a plan to accurately map critical infrastructure in the West, including at sea. If there is an attack on such facilities, the impact could be enormous. As Swistek estimates, a Russian attack would be dangerous if several points were affected. "In the North Sea, for example, we have a relatively large amount of maritime infrastructure. We have data cables. We have pipelines, we have offshore oil rigs. We have offshore wind farms," the expert told ZDF.

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The fact that Russia has become more "active" on the seas in recent weeks and months has long been a source of concern for Western observers. Recently, several nations had published their observations of the Nord Stream incident and suspected Russia. Referring to a Russian transport ship that can also carry submarines, Jens Wenzel Kristoffersen, a Danish naval captain and analyst at the University of Copenhagen, said: "The type is a ship that can send things to the bottom of the sea." It has equipment with which it is able to locate, confirm and map what lies on the seabed.

Russia expands activities to North Sea: cat-and-mouse game of the secret services

Since the 1960s, Moscow is said to have used military and supposedly civilian ships in the Baltic and North Seas in order to identify possible weak points. While tensions between East and West reached their peak during the Cold War, both sides played a cat-and-mouse game on the seas, using sonar, radar, underwater microphones and patrol boats. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Russian warships have repeatedly been operating on the Baltic Sea on behalf of Vladimir Putin.

In order to be as prepared as possible for new espionage attacks, NATO is now relying on a mixture of "traditional" counterintelligence and support from the private sector. The biggest challenge for the West, however, is the geographical specificity of the waters. Few shallows and the limited space play into the hands of a suspected saboteur.

NATO's defense: expert proposes patrols

While NATO is now ramping up its defenses on the North Sea and Baltic Sea, Professor Jonathan Holslag of VUB University in Brussels and the Belgian Royal Higher Institute of Defense gives a harsh verdict to the Times: "Honestly, we don't know what the Russians have done. We woke up too late." In order to react accordingly, the West has little alternative but to rely on regular patrols along the critical underwater infrastructure. (febu