Prigozhin only "a shadow of his former self" – Russia expert on mercenary boss

The head of the mercenary force "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin is now only "a shadow of himself". (Archive photo) © Itar-Tass/Imago

The Wagner boss Prigozhin had announced his interim withdrawal from Bakhmut. A Russia expert considers the oligarch to be "desperate".

Kiev/Moscow – After the internal conflict between the head of the "Wagner" mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Defense Ministry had apparently calmed down in the spring, it has now escalated dramatically. In a video message, Putin's cook publicly attacked the Kremlin and blamed Moscow for the deaths of numerous "Wagner" mercenaries in Bakhmut. The situation boiled down again after the oligarch was promised the delivery of the missing ammunition.

Nevertheless, the relationship between Prigozhin and Moscow remains under tension. The behavior of Putin's cook remains unpredictable. Renowned Russia expert and historian Mark Galeotti considers Prigozhin's actions to be a simple diversionary maneuver from an imminent defeat in Bakhmut. In an interview with Kyiv Independent, the expert described the "Wagner" boss only as "a shadow of himself."

Ukraine war: Russia expert considers Prigozhin's threat a "bluff"

Galeotti doubts that Prigozhin would be able to carry out his threats. "If he were to withdraw from Bakhmut, it would be catastrophic for him, it would be tantamount to betrayal," he explains. Even though the restaurant mogul usually stands by his word, it is hard to imagine that he could live with the consequences of a withdrawal. "I'd be surprised if he survived this. I don't necessarily mean physically, but he has so many enemies that would happily bring him down as soon as he had no more protection," says Galeotti.

Galeotti does not believe in a politically motivated background to take Prigozhin and his troops out of the game. Rather, the "Wagner" troops had drawn the sad fate of having to wear down the Ukrainian armed forces in Bakhmut at the expense of their own well-being. The bottom line is that they want to take Bakhmut, "and if you can achieve that by wearing down Wagner and, above all, using up his supply of convicted soldiers, then that's not bad," says the British expert.

Rather, Galeotti considers Prigozhin's messages to be a "bluff" to distract from the lack of success in eastern Ukraine. The accusation that the Russian leadership withheld ammunition from the "Wagner" group in the battle for Bakhmut is implausible in view of how closely they have worked with the Russian airborne troops: "It should be difficult to withhold ammunition from one and not from the other."

Putin as arbitrator between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense

Galeotti sees Prigozhin's performances as an expression of "desperation." The video messages from Putin's cook are the only way to seek a direct line to the Kremlin since Putin himself cut off his communication channels with the "Wagner" boss. It can also be assumed that the Russian president has seen the videos of his old friend – but there has been no direct reaction so far.

The friendship between Putin and Prigozhin

Putin and Prigozhin have known each other for a long time. During his time as a KGB officer in the city administration of St. Petersburg, the Russian president is said to have frequently visited Prigozhin's restaurant. That is why the businessman, who became wealthy in Russia in the 1990s and even spent time in prison for theft, is also called "Putin's cook".

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According to Galeotti, it is unlikely that President Vladimir Putin will publicly contact Prigozhin. He would work more as a subtle mediator between his old friend and the Ministry of Defense. "If there is either a statement from the Ministry of Defense, [...] or a statement by Prigozhin, in which it is said that everything has now been clarified, but without it being clear what exactly will happen, then we know that Putin has basically read the Levites to one side or the other," the Russia expert explained.

The tension between Prigozhin and Russia's military will probably only dissipate with the end of the fighting for Bakhmut. Even after U.S. secret documents revealed that the oligarch's public attacks had "frustrated" the Kremlin, more harsh video messages from Prigozhin are to be expected. (aa)