Military exercises in Belarus (symbolic image) © Viktor Tolochko/IMAGO
If Russia were to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, the country would assume the role it had in the Soviet Union as the upstream line of defense of the Russian Empire.
This analysis is IPPEN. MEDIA in the course of a cooperation with the Europe.Table Professional Briefing – it was first published by Europe.Table on 02 May 2023.
Moscow/Minsk – Belarusian soldiers are already practicing the use of the Iskander short-range missile in Russia. And Belarus is apparently already preparing to store and deploy Russian nuclear weapons. Several places – old Soviet airfields and bases – are suitable for this. Two of them stand out for their history and geographical location:
- Novokolosovo southwest of Minsk
- Lida on the border with Lithuania and Poland
In Novokolosovo, formerly Stolbtsy-2, until 1992 was the arsenal of the 25th unit of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Soviet Union. It was the only storage facility for strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus. 1,120 nuclear warheads are said to have been stored there. Officially, this place did not exist.
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After the withdrawal of Soviet nuclear weapons and launchers from Belarus at the end of 1996, Novokolosovo took on a new military and civilian significance. On the one hand, the arsenal of the Belarusian 25th ballistic missile unit is now housed there, and on the other hand, some old halls are said to have been rented out as warehouses for civilian products. According to information from Table.Media, the leases of the civilian users of this site have been terminated.
Satellite images show changes on the site
As satellite images from Vertical52, which Table.Media exclusively evaluated, show, four large covered parking areas were created at the military base between August 2021 and the end of 2023. In the current photo, it is also visible that larger areas on the site have been cleared. There is more military technology on the entire site than in the 2021 picture.
The geographical location of Novokolozovo is favorable: the base is located on the important M1 highway, northeast-southwest direction, and between two highways running in an east-west direction. There are good connections to the Polish, Lithuanian and Ukrainian borders. There is also a railway line specially laid to the military site. It is unclear whether it is operational.
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In addition to Novokolosovo, the Lida airfield is considered a possible storage location from which Russian jets with nuclear weapons could take off. This old airfield in the west of the country is located just a few kilometers from the NATO countries of Poland and Lithuania. South of it, a nuclear missile unit was stationed at the time of the Soviet Union. It was from this place that the last Soviet Topol nuclear missile was transferred to Russia on November 27, 1996.
At today's airfield, according to Nikolai N. Sokov, the SU-25 fighter jets, capable of carrying nuclear bombs, are stationed. About ten SU-25s have allegedly already been technically modified. Sokow is a Senior Fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP). He was a long-time employee of the Russian Foreign Ministry and participated in the negotiations of the nuclear disarmament treaties START I and II. When asked, in addition to Lida, he also considers Novokolosovo to be possible as a storage location for nuclear weapons. Journalists from the independent Belarusian television channel Belsat even consider the site to be the most likely place where Russian nuclear weapons could be stored.
"It depends on NATO's behavior"
However, Sokov emphasizes that it is irrelevant where Russian nuclear weapons are deployed. "More important is the question of whether this will really happen. It depends on various factors," the former diplomat told Table.Media. The probability is growing. "I'm not ready to give a concrete prediction yet, but the development is going steadily in such a way that there will be a transfer. Much will depend not so much on what happens in Ukraine but on the behaviour of Nato and Poland in particular."
Sokov warns against a too rapid reaction of NATO and against the transfer of American B-61 nuclear bombs to Poland. "In doing so, NATO would play the Russian game and accelerate the escalation." So far, there is nothing to suggest that NATO is considering transferring nuclear weapons to the eastern member states, despite Poland's wishes.
Belarusian opposition figure Pavel Latushka believes that President Aleksander Lukashenko, who is not recognized by the EU, wants Russian nuclear weapons in any case. "He is also securing his power. The weapons will come," Latushka said in an interview with Table.Media. The former culture minister heads the opposition organization National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM), which is based in Poland.
He accuses the EU of underestimating the role of Belarus in the Russian war. "Every day, opponents of the regime are arrested there, the Belarusian army trains Russian soldiers and supplies them with ammunition and technology." In addition, the regime is also involved in the deportation of Ukrainian children. "There have been no tougher sanctions against Minsk for eleven months," complains the 50-year-old.
Belarus checks readiness of reservists
Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin would bet on confusion with a possible use of a nuclear weapon from Belarus. Latushka explains: "If Russian nuclear weapons with Belarusian delivery systems are launched from Belarusian soil, then it is not clear who is responsible. The West will discuss and in the end will not do anything that will deter Putin and Lukashenko."
In addition to the exercises in Russia for the Iskander missiles, which, according to Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, have already been handed over to Belarus, Belarusian and Russian armed forces are currently training together in Belarus. Latushka confirms media reports that the operational readiness of Belarusian reservists is currently being examined.
"There are 40,000 reservists, 40,000 in the army and the Russian soldiers in the country. Together, there are perhaps 100,000 men." Asked whether Lukashenko has not explicitly avoided actively intervening in the war so far, the former minister says: "That's true. But if Putin orders him to do so, then he will do it." (By Christian von Hiller)
