The electoral campaign of uncertainty begins

Spanish politics has been plunged into a sea of uncertainty. They recognize it in the engine room of the two major parties at the start of the campaign for municipal and regional elections that no one doubts will be decisive, because they are held just six months before the general elections: everything is open. The macro-survey of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) released on Thursday, which all strategists study carefully because it is the largest sample, despite the fact that the right insists on denouncing its bias in favor of the PSOE, points to a very tight scenario on May 28. According to the poll, the Socialists could retain their main fiefdoms, while Isabel Díaz Ayuso caresses the absolute majority in Madrid; but except in the case of the president of Madrid and the mayor of Vigo, the socialist Abel Caballero, whom no one seems to threaten victory, the rest of the candidates will suffer a dizzying scrutiny on election night. The CIS reveals that the local key will have a lot of weight, although the reading will be national. Two narratives are in dispute: the resistance of the left and the change of cycle in favor of the PP.

The left insists that there is a party despite the fact that the PP leads most of the national polls and that the progressive forces put more at stake on May 28 than the right, because they defend the governments of nine autonomous communities against the two that the PP aspires to revalidate. The CIS poll allows the Socialists to go out to the campaign with optimism, although everything hangs by a thread, because it points to the PSOE winning in municipal votes and will resist in general where it governs by the pull of its candidates.

Reyes Maroto and Juan Lobato at the pasting of posters, in the Plaza de Rafaella Carrà, on Thursday in the Centro district in Madrid. JUAN BARBOSA

The barometer ―which must be taken with caution, because its estimates have systematically overestimated the left since 2018, when José Félix Tezanos came to the leadership, as shown by the analysis of Kiko Llaneras in EL PAÍS― ensures that the left could keep its governments of the Valencian Community, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura, Asturias, Balearic and Canary Islands. And that the PP could take La Rioja, win in Cantabria, where the surprise is that the party of President Miguel Ángel Revilla (the PRC) sinks to third position, and has the possibility of snatching the PSOE Aragon. The new coalition of Emptied Spain will hold the key.

The popular go out to the campaign with their governments of Madrid and Murcia very consolidated, with a very strong Ayuso above all. Instead, the fight is open in the Madrid City Council, according to the CIS, with a possibility of turning to the left that no poll had so far considered. In Barcelona, Ada Colau wins by the minimum, practically tied with Jaume Collboni, while the Socialists would keep Seville, as well as Compromís the city of Valencia. But it's all up in the air.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo placed electoral posters in Montijo (Badajoz), at the beginning of the campaign. ROBERTO PALOMO

The PP recognizes that if the forecast of the CIS were fulfilled, the result would be "insufficient" for Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who has set the bar to win municipal votes and snatch new governments from the left. "We do not escape the challenge that we have set, we have contemplated that the election night can be written the chronicle that there is no change of cycle if we do not manage to take many governments to the PSOE. But Feijóo plays less than Sánchez, because if the PSOE endures, there is still a party. And, on the contrary, if several governments lose, then how was Sánchez going to reverse that situation? It would start its countdown, "they defend in the direct team of the popular president. The Socialists maintain that they do not see that scenario, but one of risk for the leader of the PP. "We are in a position to revalidate everything, and in a position to fight for Barcelona and even for Zaragoza. We are optimistic although nothing has been done, but if we keep our governments, we beat them in the municipal elections and Ayuso gets an absolute majority, the perfect storm is for Feijóo. We were always surprised that he raised this as a motion of censure, because it can be turned against him internally, "they counterpose in the PSOE campaign committee.

The candidate of Unidas Podemos to the presidency of the Community of Madrid, Alejandra Jacinto (second from the left), the general secretary of Podemos and minister of Social Rights and Agenda 2030, Ione Belarra (center), and the candidate for mayor, Roberto Sotomayor (second from the right), during the pasting of posters of his formation for the elections of 28-M, on Thursday in the Madrid neighborhood of Orcasitas.Rodrigo Jimenez (EFE)

The campaign begins now and the parties will fight to impose their issues in the public debate in the 15 days until the elections, but the Socialists defend that they have dominated the agenda throughout the pre-campaign, since the controversy over the Doñana natural park jumped, and that they are getting to fight the PP the flag that the right manages the economy better. The government is also hyperactive with a carousel of announcements of social measures, from housing to drought – on Thursday, the Council of Ministers approved an aid package of 2,190 million euros for the effects of the lack of water – that barely leaves room on the right to place other issues. But the PP also has its weapons, and the popular give great importance to the controversy over the lists of Bildu, in which the association of victims Covite has denounced that there are 44 convicted for belonging to ETA, and that Feijóo has quickly taken advantage to hit Sánchez.

"They govern with Bildu and do not disgust them," criticized the leader of the PP in Valencia on Thursday, while the PSOE also distanced itself from the decision of the Abertzale coalition. "They are lists that we do not like and that also unnecessarily and unfairly reopen the pain of the victims," lamented the socialist spokeswoman and Minister of Education, Pilar Alegría, while the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, asked Bildu to "rethink" the actions that harm the victims of terrorism. The general secretary of Podemos, Ione Belarra, complained that the PP put the focus on this issue, which the popular are convinced that makes the partners of the government coalition very uncomfortable for their agreements with Bildu. "The right does not know how to make an electoral campaign without talking about ETA and now we are already in a very different situation from 10 years ago, luckily for everyone," reflected the minister.

But the 28-M will vote for the regional presidents and mayors, even though the parties have given national focus to these elections and Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo have thrown the campaign behind their backs with caravans typical of a general election, so it will be more of a super Sunday with hundreds of simultaneous battles with their own keys and territorial singularities. From the photograph of the CIS macro-survey, some general trends can be extracted from how the parties come out to the game. The right, in general, is very mobilized, against a more lukewarm left, in which the PSOE resists; the PP benefits from the disappearance of Ciudadanos in all autonomies – it only has the possibility of entering the Madrid City Council – and needs the push of Vox, while Unidas Podemos and its capacity to endure will have the key to many governments. Resistance from the left or change of cycle. The parties will throw the rest, aware that the 28-M will reset everything.

Subscribe to continue reading

Read without limits

Read more

I'm already a subscriber