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Turkey: "The election results will cause chaos, maybe even violence in the streets" | Israel Hayom

2023-05-12T11:28:45.592Z

Highlights: Burak Bakdil, a senior political analyst in Turkey, warns of a productive election campaign that could plunge the country to the edge of the abyss. "If Kilicdaroglu is elected, he will open a new page in relations with Israel," the analyst predicts. "Erdogan's ideological obsession with political Islam is his main motive in destroying Turkish-Israeli relations," he says. "It will not be an easy task to repair the damage that has accumulated over the past two decades," he adds.


Burak Bakdil, a senior political analyst in Turkey, warns of a productive election campaign that could plunge the country to the edge of the abyss • "If Kilicdaroglu is elected, he will open a new page in relations with Israel," the analyst predicts


Two days before Turkey's fateful presidential election on Sunday, the two main rivals — incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and secular opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu — are preparing for their last major conferences in a tense election campaign.

In recent weeks, the two have plowed the length and breadth of Turkey, Erdogan in an attempt to secure his re-election despite unflattering polls, and Kilicdaroglu hoping to bring about a political upheaval after two decades of Erdogan's rule. Burak Bakdil, one of Turkey's top political commentators, predicts in an interview with Israel Hayom a difficult situation for Turkey after the elections.

Senior political analyst in Turkey, Burak Bakdil, photo: courtesy of the subject

"It is important to remember that presidential elections and parliamentary elections are held simultaneously," Bakdil emphasizes, "Regarding the presidential elections, for the first time in 21 years, it seems that the opposition has a real chance of winning these elections, even though it will be a very inconclusive victory. It is very likely that the winner of this election will receive 51% to 49% for his opponent. Regarding parliamentary elections, most opinion polls indicate that the bloc supporting Erdogan's current government will lose its absolute majority. On the morning of Monday, May 15, the day after the elections, a strange picture may emerge: Erdogan may win the presidential election but lose control of parliament. What will happen then? He could negotiate a deal with one of the opposition parties, the Good Party (conservative in its platform but part of the Alliance of the Nation that supports Kilicdaroğlu's candidate, AB) and add it to his coalition. If such a move fails, Erdogan could "buy" some opposition delegates in parliament to persuade them to switch sides. In any case, the election results are likely to guarantee one thing: chaos, including the possibility of violence in the streets."

After 20 years of Erdogan's rule, first as prime minister and then as president, what needs to change in Turkey?

"If Erdogan is defeated and indeed goes, a long and painful period of "normalization" is expected: economic recovery; extensive new appointments in the clerical apparatus; a complete reassessment of foreign policy in favor of the US, NATO and the European Union and to the detriment of Russia; the re-neighboring of secularism; separation from political Islam; a return to fair democratic standards and freedom of expression, and a possible revival of the parliamentary system in place of the current executive presidential regime."

Does Kilicdaroglu have the ability to deal with so many challenges and pull Turkey out of Erdogan's shadow?

"The opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroğlu, has a good democratic background, but it is not inconceivable that the team around him will find it difficult to deal with the mountain of challenges they will face. With or without Erdogan, Turkey has a tough few years ahead. It will not be an easy task to repair the damage that has accumulated over the past two decades."

Can Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party survive without Erdogan as president?

"Nope. The Justice and Development Party is Erdogan. It is actually not a party. It's a one-man show. In the post-Erdogan period, the party will split into several rival factions."

Turkish-Israeli relations have experienced many crises under Erdogan's leadership. Despite the renewed rapprochement between the two countries over the past year, it is highly doubtful that the anti-Israelism that Erdogan has instilled in Turkish public discourse will soon disappear. Unlike previous election campaigns, Erdogan did not take advantage of Operation Shield and Arrow to lash out at Israel, which he used in the past to mobilize voters. This restraint may disappear if no decision is made in the first round of voting and it is transferred to the second round of voting in two weeks.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu greets his supporters, Photo: Reuters

"If Kilicdaroglu is elected, he will open a new page in relations with Israel," Bakdil estimates, "Erdogan's ideological obsession with political Islam was his main motive in destroying Turkish-Israeli relations. Kilicdaroglu is an enemy of political Islam and groups such as Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. Reconciliation with Israel will probably proceed slowly, perhaps taking years. But it will happen as long as Kilicdaroglu or someone like him rules Turkey. Erdogan is a staunch anti-Zionist. Kılıçdaroğlu does not."

Do the Turkish people still want to be part of the European Union?

"Theoretically, yes. But with zero chances under Erdogan or any other Islamist leader. Kilicdaroglu will lead Turkey back towards the European Union, but that too will be a long and painful process.

The Kurdish issue plays a very significant role in the current election campaign. President Erdogan accuses his rival Kilicdaroglu of having the support of "terrorists" - operatives of the Kurdish underground organization PKK and their political wing. Erdogan warns that Kilicdaroglu will "divide Turkey" if he wins and give the Kurds in the east of the country broad autonomy. Although the pro-organization bloc includes a Kurdish Islamist party, the Kurdish majority party has expressed total support for Kilicdaroğlu's candidacy. "The Kurds have the potential to become 'kingmakers' in this election," predicts Kadil, "even if Erdogan wins the presidential race, Kurdish voters are likely to abandon their support for his coalition."

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Source: israelhayom

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