Russian military bloggers already see the current battles for Bakhmut as a spring offensive by Ukraine. President Zelensky speaks out.
Bakhmut – Among Russian military bloggers, the view seems to be consolidating that Ukraine has launched its spring offensive. The attack has been expected for weeks. The Russian military, among other things, expects a counter-attack on the front line in Zaporizhzhia. However, Zelenskyy said on Thursday (11 May) that the offensive in the Ukraine war was still a long time coming. An overview of the situation.
Ukraine war: Military bloggers write about the beginning of the offensive - but not everyone agrees
"We assume that the enemy counteroffensive has begun," Russian war blogger Evgeny Poddubny wrote on Telegram on May 11. He reported breakthroughs at Soledar with several Ukrainian tanks. He expects an imminent attack in southern Ukraine. The Russian and Ukrainian Defense Ministries confirmed Ukrainian territorial gains northwest of Bakhmut near Berkhovka, but not near Soledar.
Alexander Kots, another Russian military blogger, also sees the counteroffensive launched. Ukraine is intensifying attacks on Bakhmut. In addition, according to Kots, tanks are heading north. Wagner boss Prigozhin also wrote on Telegram about the start of the offensive – he now seemed completely sure. "We see the highest activity of enemy aviation, we see its highest activity on the periphery and inside our front," Prigozhin said.
Igor Strelkov, the former military chief of the separatist Donetsk People's Republic, sees things differently. "Just one glance at the map is enough to understand that so far we are talking about local (albeit successful) counterattacks," Strelkov says. The maneuvers are purely tactical and not yet a counteroffensive.
Zelensky on spring offensive: "So we need a little more time."
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, announced to the BBC on Thursday that the offensive would be delayed. The army is ready, but still needs, among other things, armored vehicles that arrive in batches. With what is there, "we can move on and be successful. But we would lose a lot of people," Zelenskyy told the BBC. This is unacceptable. "So we need a little more time."
A Ukrainian soldier near the Russian position at Soledar at the end of April. There is a fierce battle for the city right now. © Ashley Chan/Imago
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Ukraine is increasingly worried that with a counteroffensive with little territorial gains, the West's arms deliveries will decrease and the pressure to accept an unfavorable peace deal with Russia will increase. Ukraine will not go along with this, Zelensky said. When the counteroffensive will finally start, the president did not announce. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov announced at the end of April that "preparations are coming to an end." "The equipment was promised, prepared and partially delivered. In the broadest sense, we are ready," he said.
Ukraine war: No counter-offensive, but territorial gains? – The situation in eastern Ukraine
According to military economist Marcus Keupp, the first preparatory strikes for the offensive are already underway in Ukraine. In recent weeks, infrastructure objects have been shelled in Russia and the occupied territories. The slight terrain gains are the next phase: reconnaissance through combat and search for Russian weak points.
Fierce battles are taking place around Soledar and Bakhmut. Russian military bloggers believe that the spring offensive has already started. © Brühl, A., Lorenz, M./dpa
Northwest of Bakhmut near Berkhivka, a spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, Igor Konashenkov, acknowledged a withdrawal of Russian units. There had been fighting around the city of Soledar, but no shifting of positions. It is expected that Ukraine will continue to rely on small pinpricks on the front lines in the coming weeks. If the Russian side does not react, the Ukrainians will advance and recapture territory. If the Russians pull together reinforcements, their opponents will look for the next point of attack in Kiev. The goal, he said, is to tire out the Russian troops to such an extent that they miss the decisive breakthrough. (chd/dpa)
