This man is supposed to end the Ukraine war on behalf of China – but does Beijing want peace at all?

China shows the way: Li Hui, then ambassador to Russia, with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin in 2019. © Mikhail Metzel/Imago

China's special envoy for Eurasia will travel to Ukraine on Monday. Does the peace mission of the Putin friend have a chance? An expert expresses doubts.

Munich/Beijing/Kiev – Of course, a photo is always just a snapshot, taken in a fraction of a second. But this one has a very special symbolic power, it seems almost prophetic. It was created in May 2019 in the Kremlin. It shows Russian President Vladimir Putin, smiling shyly, like a schoolboy who has eaten something. Next to him is a man with thick black hair who shows Putin the way – at least that's how it looks in the shot. The man is Li Hui, Beijing's ambassador to Russia at the time. In other words, a guest in the Kremlin, not a host, as the picture suggests. Even then, however, it was clear that it was China that was setting the direction in the relationship between the two superpowers. Now, four years later, even in Russia, this may have been recognized.

Some therefore believe that China could influence Putin to finally end the war in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron and his Brazilian counterpart Lula da Silva are among those who have not yet given up hope that Beijing will eventually mutate from a friend of Russia to a peacemaker after more than a year of war in Ukraine.

So far, however, Beijing has always demonstratively sided with the Kremlin at every possible opportunity. For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, head of state Xi Jinping had only a few phrases left during a recent first phone call. After all, at the meeting at the end of April, Xi announced that he would send his special envoy for Eurasia affairs to Ukraine.

Expert: China's special envoy for Ukraine "not the happiest choice"

On Monday, this man is expected in Kiev and then travels on to Poland, France, Germany and Russia, as Beijing's Foreign Ministry announced on Friday. The man who is supposed to stop the killing in Ukraine on behalf of China is: Li Hui, China's former ambassador to Moscow, bearer of the Russian Order of Friendship. For Saskia Hieber of the Academy for Civic Education in Tutzing, Li is "not the happiest choice" because of his proximity to the Kremlin. In an interview with our editorial team, the expert on international politics and security policy with a focus on Asia also says: "What counts is regional competence."

And Li, born in 1953, undoubtedly has them. The diplomat was stationed in Moscow for ten years from 2009, speaks fluent Russian and has dedicated his entire career to relations with the Soviet Union and its successor states, which are not always easy. For several years, he was also China's vice foreign minister – the man is anything but a diplomatic lightweight.

Li Hui is "someone who is well-versed in the relevant matters and can play a positive role in facilitating peace talks," China's foreign ministry said in April. Asia expert Hieber says: "From Beijing's point of view, a potential mediator must first have the consent of Moscow – Ukraine's sensitivities are subordinate." One can probably assume that Li Hui's personnel has been coordinated with the Kremlin – at least there were many opportunities to do so. President Xi was only in Moscow in March, and the foreign ministers of both countries last met in southern India at the beginning of May. Beijing wants to "strengthen strategic communication and consolidate and deepen cooperation in various fields," China Foreign Minister Qin Gang told his Russian counterpart at the meeting.

How serious is China about peace in Ukraine?

It is these constant greetings of love to Moscow that sow doubts about how serious Beijing is about peace in Ukraine. "China is, of course, interested in an end to the war," says Hieber. After all, the conflict is "an economic catastrophe" and also threatens Beijing's interests. However, it remains to be seen what peace might look like from China's point of view. A twelve-point plan published by Beijing in February contained little concrete. In addition, China has not yet demanded a withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied Ukrainian territories, at least not publicly. Instead, Beijing's top politicians always point out in general terms that the sovereignty of all states must be recognized. "For Beijing, however, this does not mean that Moscow has to return all the territories" it has occupied in Ukraine, according to Saskia Hieber.

0

Also Read

Wolf pack tears 39 sheep: angry farmers demand shooting - "Even ponies killed"

READ

Zelensky sure: Putin is secretly already counting on defeat – "Already lost in people's minds"

READ

Soldier reports on the battle for Bakhmut: "Russians must capitulate" - otherwise there is a threat of encirclement

READ

"Like 1944": Expert now sees scenario for front collapse - end of war in 2023 possible?

READ

Uproar over wolves: Green Minister is against shooting – with reference to elephants and tigers

READ

Fancy a voyage of discovery?

My Area

In any case, what China does not want is a "crushing defeat" for the Russians. "A politically and economically weakened, destabilized and ostracized neighbor is not a good neighbor," Hieber said. In addition, Russia is "still a supra-regional superpower that plays a role in Europe and – more importantly for China – in the Pacific." In other words, in the region where Beijing and Washington are increasingly struggling for influence. In general, Beijing no longer wants to accept that the US dominates world politics. In order to weaken Washington, China's leadership is therefore willing to use almost any means, and without Putin, Xi Jinping calculates, this is currently not possible. "A change is imminent that has not taken place in 100 years," China's head of state Xi whispered to the Russian president in March when he left the Kremlin. "And we are driving this change together." Where there should be room for Ukraine's interests is questionable.

In the end, China could still be the winner. Because if Li does not succeed with his diplomatic mission in Ukraine, Beijing can claim that it has at least tried – and simply continue to blame NATO and the US for the ongoing killings.