From his palace in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan watched this year as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping managed to record an achievement he most desires: an unlimited term. In China, the two-term limit enacted in the 90s was lifted in March, effectively allowing Xi to remain in office until his death. Putin in April signed a law allowing him to run for president twice more, that is, until at least 2036, making him the longest-serving leader since the days of the Russian Empire, surpassing even Stalin. There is no doubt that for Erdogan, who sees himself as an equally important leader of the two dictators, the May 14 presidential elections are of enormous importance on a personal, global and historical level.
History has a unique sense of humor. Many times, events that happen in the present correspond with turning points in the past. As history would have it, Turkey's presidential election on Sunday is being held one hundred years after the founding of the Republic of Turkey under the leadership of the father of the Turks, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.
However, in contrast to the secular and democratic reforms, equal rights for women, and rapprochement with the West that characterized Atatürk, Erdogan chose to go in the opposite direction through religious-conservative rule, willingness to confront his opponents, distancing himself from the West, and concentrating political power around him. In the upcoming elections, this policy will face the toughest test yet, due to the tense geopolitical situation in Turkey and abroad, and the deep and ongoing economic crisis in the country – all while the nation is still mourning and struggling to recover from a deadly earthquake that struck three months ago that killed some 50,<> people and displaced three million people.
Erdogan and his supporters, 2019 (Photo: Reuters, Mustafa Kamaci/Presidential Press Office)
Erdogan, 69, belongs to the conservative Islamic Justice and Development Party AKP. He was elected prime minister in 2003 and served until 2014, when he became president. In 2016, a failed coup attempt led Erdogan to hold a constitutional referendum that transformed Turkey from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. He abolished the post of prime minister and, since 2017, has run Turkey from his thousand-room palace in Ankara.
Critics say Erdogan's government has stifled dissent, eroded human rights and seized control of the judicial system. The government, on the other hand, says it protects civilians from security threats, including the coup attempt. Freedom House rated Turkey as an "unfree" country in 2016, a rating that has not changed since.
Erdogan and Putin, 2022 (Photo: Reuters)
Confrontational and aggressive approach
Under Erdogan, Turkey has not shied away from using military force in the Middle East and beyond. It has attacked Syria and Iraq as part of its war against Kurdish fighters demanding statehood, and sent military support to Libya and Azerbaijan. In the diplomatic arena, Turkey has clashed with regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel. It also has tense relations with Greece and Cyprus over maritime borders in the Middle East.
Turkey's decision to purchase air defense systems from Russia led to U.S. sanctions against Ankara, and Erdogan's rapprochement with Putin drew criticism and skepticism about Turkey's commitment to NATO, of which it is a member.
Turkey's opposition this year to accepting Sweden and Finland as new members of the alliance following Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also led to criticism and escalated tensions in the West with Turkey. On the other hand, Erdogan managed to broker an agreement to export wheat from Ukraine, underscoring the Turkish president's desire to be considered a significant force in the region and the world.
Erdogan and EU representatives, 2021 (Photo: Reuters)
A member of the Union?
Relations between Turkey and the European Union are a story that has been going on for more than 60 years. In 1959, Turkey applied to join the pre-EU European Economic Community, and in 1963 signed the Ankara Agreement.
A series of coups and political and economic instability delayed Turkey's full integration, but in the 80s, its membership process resumed. In the 90s, Turkey was granted candidate status to join the EU and began implementing measures to meet the EU's conditions for accession.
But various issues got in the way. The EU's decision to admit Cyprus to the organization in 2004 was a major point of contention with Turkey, which has ruled the north of the island since 1974. In 2011, then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy visited Ankara with a clear message: France opposes Turkey's membership of the EU.
Some argue that Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian regime has caused the EU to change its mind. The brutal suppression of the Gezi Park protests in 2013, the erosion of human rights and the rule of law, and the consolidation of the regime in the 2017 constitutional referendum effectively diminished Turkey's chances of joining the EU. In 2018, the European Council issued a statement saying: "Negotiations for Turkey's accession have reached an impasse."
US President Joe Biden wants a 'new government in Turkey' (Photo: Image processing, Shutterstock)
Relations with the United States
Turkey's relationship with the United States deteriorated significantly in 2019 when Ankara purchased Russian-made S-400 missile systems, a move the United States believed would endanger NATO fighter jets flying over Turkey. In response, the United States expelled Ankara from its F-35 fighter jet development program and imposed sanctions on its defense industry.
Washington has also made no secret of its desire for regime change in Turkey. In 2019, Joe Biden, a presidential candidate, said the United States would support Turkish opposition leaders "to defeat Erdogan." "He must pay a price for his authoritarianism," Biden said, drawing the ire of the Turkish president.
Turkish lira plummets, 2018 (Photo: Reuters)
That's the economy
Ahead of Sunday's election, Erdogan announced a series of economic benefits for voters, including gas and free internet packages. This will not fix the economy, which is in a deep crisis thanks to Erdogan's own stubbornness.
Erdogan's adherence to a monetary policy of cutting interest rates to combat inflation, a method opposed by most economists and central banks around the world, has only led to a spike in the cost of living. He eroded the independence of the central bank, replacing three chairmen and appointing relatives in their place, solely so as not to encounter opposition. As evidence, inflation in Turkey last year reached 85% at one point, and the Turkish lira has depreciated to one-tenth of its value against the dollar over the past decade under the "Erdogonmics" policy, as analysts call it.
The official inflation rate in Turkey today is 43.68%, but many believe that this figure is too low. Erdogan still promises high growth, six million new jobs and significant support for the tourism sector, but analysts say that as long as he persists in his monetary policy, inflation will only continue to strengthen in the coming months.
The deadly earthquake, 2023 (Photo: Reuters)
The Turkish president is also dealing with a process of disillusionment within his people. At the beginning of his rule, he was seen as a reformer, a working-class leader and a devout Muslim. He improved housing and public services for many—and succeeded in forging blind loyalty.
However, over the years, economic prosperity began to stagnate and inflation soared. In addition, his regime has become increasingly cruel and oppressive. He has fired tens of thousands of civil servants, arrested journalists and opponents, filled the courts with judges who support him, and even replaced elected mayors with his own well-being.
In February, when an earthquake struck southern Turkey and claimed tens of thousands of lives, traumatized citizens accused the government of slow response to the disaster, corruption and careless construction. Many blamed Erdogan personally.
The Future of Global Democracy
On the global level, Erdogan's victory or loss would, analysts say, also affect the future direction of democratic expansion. In recent years, countries from Hungary to India have followed Erdogan's lead in the erosion of democratic institutions. 56 countries are now defined as "electoral autocracy" compared to 40 at the end of the Cold War, according to the V-DEM think tank.
Erdogan paved the way for an electoral autocracy based on "divisive culture warfare, hostility to the West and paranoia about plots inside and outside — as well as the takeover of important state institutions, the threat, intimidation and arrest of his opponents and elected officials, and the continuous erosion of a free press," Washington Post correspondent Ishaan Tharoor said recently.
But if Erdogan loses, "it will prove that it is possible to stop the erosion of democracy and change course," The Economist recently wrote.
Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu (Photo: official website, Wikipedia)
Muharram Inje, his resignation strengthens the opposition (Photo: documentation on social networks according to section 27A of the Copyright Law)
What the opposition promises
The two main opposition parties, the secular CHP and the center-right nationalist IYI, formed coalitions with four small parties under Erdogan's policy change platform. They pledged to restore the central bank's independence and reverse its controversial monetary policy.
They promised to dissolve the presidency in favor of the previous parliamentary system and send back Syrian refugees who fled the civil war to Turkey (3.6 million Syrian refugees currently live in Turkey).
They want to improve relations with Western allies, including the United States, and return to the F-35 development program.
They also want new laws to expand free speech and civil rights, as well as greater independence for the courts. The election commission will also enjoy more power if Erdogan loses, especially amid fears that the president has already amassed enough power to overturn any election result that does not show victory.
A poll conducted on May 6-7 by polling firm Conde ahead of Turkey's presidential election on Sunday showed Erdogan lagging behind rival Kemal Kilicdaroğlu, 49.3 percent to 43.7 percent, failing to gain the majority needed to win the first round. According to the poll, both candidates will compete in a second round on May 28.
On Thursday, Muharram Ince, another presidential candidate, withdrew, which is expected to further strengthen Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of a six-party opposition alliance and leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), also known as Turkey's Gandhi.
Erdogan's lag in the polls provides hope for many in Turkey, especially young people, who want to see his twenty-year rule end. But Erdogan is a veteran fox when it comes to political campaigns – and he also has the full support of the state and its institutions.
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