Many kings and presidents would have benefited from having a catalogue indicating what to do and what to avoid in the years and months leading up to the great revolutions. Listening to Mike Duncan's excellent podcast Revolutionspodcast.com, I tried to construct a short manual with instructions to avoid revolutions, which I hope will be useful for today's presidents.
1. No one in his right mind removes a competent leader from government. Nicholas Romanov left no doubt that he was unbearably incompetent, both in 1905, in the first Russian revolution, and in 1917. At first, it was not in anyone's head to guillotine Louis XVI of France, nor to pass Charles I of England through the axe. Only after countless displays of stubbornness and incompetence did these characters manage to convince enough people, who originally defended the monarch, that part of the solution to the revolts was to get them out of the way. If that meant cutting off their heads, what was going to be done to him.
2. Not considered indispensable. In 1910 Porfirio Díaz had to leave and replace Bernardo Reyes, a loyal conservative who could renew faces and alleviate the weight of a de facto dictatorship of 31 years. But no. Like Louis XVI, Charles I or Nicholas Romanov, he believed that he was called by the divinity to lead his country, that only he could do it and that the others would have to manage. That exasperated his subordinates and sharpened the intelligence of the enemies. Remember, cemeteries are full of indispensable people.
3. Avoid war. The three most common mistakes when starting a war are: it's going to be short, it's going to be easy, and we're going to win it. Defeats eat away at leadership and reveal weaknesses at the top. They demonstrate errors of judgment and strategy, poor evaluation of the opponent and overvaluation of the national army. Try to avoid a war, and if you cannot, prepare it thoroughly with the conviction that it will be long, difficult and you can lose it.
4. Engage deeply in crises that hit everyone. Poor harvests, price inflation, adverse climatic phenomena and pandemics that bring widespread mortality are episodes that in a matter of months become unbearable. In that case, you want to be on the right side of popular rage. If people are hungry, hand out food. If you are sick, hand out medicine. If there was a natural disaster, organize reconstruction. Your heart must be where the people's problem is; Otherwise, your head will be in danger.
5. There is always at least one minister who serves a purpose, listen to him. Sergei Witte was the only person in the Romanov government who understood what was going on in Russia, according to Tsar Nicholas' father. But Nicholas saw him as the wise son of a railroad employee and disliked him. He stayed with the rest of the inept cabinet, neglected Witte, let him go, and approached his debacle.
6. The only sin that the gods do not forgive is pride. Whenever you have to choose between humility and pride, opt for the former. Christ is an example of humility, even though He said, "I am the way, the truth, and the life. No one comes to the Father except through the Son." Pride is a mistake that everyone sees, and that sours friends and enemies alike. Apart from that it makes him a bad judge of character and leads to taking excessive risks.
7. Excessive taxes exasperate. Wars, epidemics and populists cost the treasury a lot and end up in more taxes, more debt and more inflation. Taxes and debt are hated by those who have something. Inflation is hated by everyone. What begins as gifts from the state received with ungrateful acquiescence ends as anger at famine and crises.
8. Choose your partner wisely. In the darkest hour, the last piece of advice you hear may be from your spouse, and it better be good. Neither Nicholas' Alexandre nor Louis XVI's Marie Antoinette were sensible wives or good advisers. They accentuated the evil monarchical instincts of the king and tsar. Everyone enjoys palace gossip.
9. Read a lot of history. Mistakes are repeated throughout history. Governments go through the same lines and the same curves. Good rudders learn a lot from knowing how those who survived handled and what mistakes those who went off a cliff made.
10. There is no insignificant region. Many revolutions are extinguished in the capital, but they remain alive in distant regions of the country. Even in Siberia, where the rioters were sent so that they would not disturb anymore. From there they returned with renewed verve and full of allies.
11. Insulting inequality will cultivate decline. In an unequal society, disadvantaged people have three choices: be loyal, protest, or leave. If they cannot come out and are not heard, their loyalty may end and they may turn against the leader. This may take decades, but in the end the run will be towards the borders or towards the presidential palace.
12. Ideas matter. We must always be attentive to the battle of ideas and fight it with better ideas. Ideas persuade and, as bad as they are, if repeated enough and have the right propaganda, they can become beliefs and even truths in everyone's head.
13. Don't fight religion. The French Revolution sealed their fate when the most radical demanded that the priests take a civil oath and that their adherence be to the State rather than the Church. Only until Napoleon pacified things did calm return. The Cristero War in Mexico had a similar origin.
14. The favor of the people is labile. Robespierre's humiliating final flight to escape his enemies, with his jaw broken by the missed shot with which he was going to commit suicide, and the breaking of his leg when jumping out of a window, must be present in the minds of anyone who believes that he represents the popular will, abuses power and ruthlessly judges others. The attempt on Bolivar came after he managed to convince many people that he wanted to become an autocrat. In a few months the town goes from cheering to throwing onions.
15. Land does not end up better distributed. One of the original motives of revolutions is usually land ownership, and it changes hands somewhat. But as the French Revolution shows, in the long run land rarely ends up in the hands of peasants.
Subscribe here to the newsletter of EL PAÍS about Colombia and receive all the informative keys of the current situation of the country.
Subscribe to continue reading
Read without limits
Read more
I'm already a subscriber