Santiago Peña has just achieved a resounding victory in the Paraguayan elections nominated by the Colorado Party, the conservative force that has controlled that country for almost the last 70 years. Economist graduated in the United States and former IMF official, former member of the board of the Central Bank and former Minister of Economy, intense trajectory for his 44 years of age, he does not feel comfortable if he is characterized as a liberal.
In this interview with Clarín he defends the notion of a necessary political center in his country and the region; praises Brazil's Lula da Silva and says he expects what happens in the elections in Argentina to make progress in Mercosur.
In a region with governments that call themselves leftist, do you open a new instance?
I think the victory reflects the sentiment of Paraguay and Paraguayans. Certainly my profile can be seen as a more right-wing profile, but in reality it is a nationalist vision of the development of Paraguay. The Colorado Party is centenarian. It has also been able to understand the moments of history and the feelings of the population.
I somehow reflect a more modern vision of politics, of the public sector. It is not a question of whether we move more to the right or to the left. This is how we move forward. I think that was the discourse that won, beyond an ideological inclination at either extreme.
What effects is the global economic crisis producing in the region? Do you see a shift of the electorates to the center as in the Brazilian case?
Socialism had its failures, but neoliberalism was clearly also a failure. We have to find the balance in the center again. I believe that strong, present States are fundamental in those areas where the State has a non-delegable role. Public services such as health, education, security, always the State will be the only one capable of solving these problems in a fair and equitable way for all.
But also the only way to generate wealth is through the generation of employment, investments, and there we need a market economy that recognizes private property, recognizes the rule of law above all, and States at the service of citizens and by this I also mean companies. That does not mean that the state has to be subject to private capital but that we are great allies.
El Mercosur
Do you agree with Uruguay in the sense of generating an opening in Mercosur?
We have to recognize that since the signing of the Treaty of Assumption in '91 to this part there have been enormous advances in terms of economic integration. Now, when we compare it with other economic blocs such as those of Southeast Asia, the European Union, we are clearly very far from an ideal scenario.
-How do you move forward then?
What we have to do is not look critically at the past 30 years, but project a much better future, where we advance in this process of integration.
- How do you imagine it?
-This integration has to be respectful of the political processes, because it is through politics that the peoples express themselves, we have to understand the moments. Today in Brazil, I believe that this third presidency of Lula can be an emblem for Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina, of course for Brazil, to be able to leave a legacy for the future.
Colorado Party president-elect Santiago Peña after his victory. EFE
And well, expectant of what happens in Argentina, in the month of October and November so that yes, we can unite the four countries and from a pragmatic look we can say, let's decide to move forward.
Do you see yourself governing in Mercosur with a proposal like Javier Milei's? Paraguay has a leader with a similar profile, Payo Cubas, who was nicknamed the "Milei of Paraguay."
I think they are totally different proposals. There is clearly a similarity in that we are both economists. We use much of the historical evidence of public policies, but clearly his gaze responds to the Argentine context, where unfortunately 70 years of fiscal deficit have led Argentina to have to remove 16 zeros in its currency.
So the proposal is very radical that is like a response to the economic situation of Argentina. Unlike Paraguay, which has historically had a much more prudent macroeconomic behavior. It is not my merit that I was minister or president of the Central Bank, but it is the conquest of a society that has understood that macroeconomic stability is a public good.
-It is an interesting concept in a region that has had serious failures in the management of the public treasury
My proposal is that on these macroeconomic foundations I have to build a more developed state that generates high-level human capital. Health, education, infrastructure, that allows Paraguay to go from that Paraguay of 5,10 dollars per capita, to a Paraguay first of 25,30, which is the average of South America, and then project ourselves to high-income countries, which are at <>,<>, <>,<> dollars per capita.
Stability is not impossible
To what extent is it a challenge today to achieve this macroeconomic stability?
-In the case of Paraguay I would not say that it is an impossible challenge, we have shown it. This year we are going to celebrate 80 years of our currency, the guarani. In that same period Brazil went through countless cases of instability, the real plan, the cross plan, hyperinflation. The same thing happened to Argentina, the same thing happened to Bolivia, the same thing happened to Uruguay.
As Augusto Roa Bastos said, Paraguay was an island surrounded by land. And this isolation also allowed Paraguay to shield itself from these political and economic ups and downs. I am convinced that Paraguay is a country doomed to success. To the extent that we can project and insert ourselves into an increasingly competitive world, a world that needs food, that needs water, a world that needs stable scenarios.
Are you worried or afraid to govern in parallel with leaders of more rigid liberal ideas, as we pointed out with the eventual case of Argentina?
-No, not at all. I think that if the Argentine people finally turn to a figure like Milei, for example, hopefully he will have the capacity to make changes. Argentina needs to make very profound economic changes. And those changes are going to have and are going to imply a very high short-term social cost for a long-term benefit.
When you were recently asked about the tensions influencing the region between the U.S. and China. The US, China or Russia recommended being guided by "national interests". Does Paraguay have diplomatic relations with Taiwan and not with China, how does this issue influence and how does it influence Mercosur?
We relate to China much more than to Taiwan. Paraguay sources products from mainland China, and China is the main buyer of Paraguay's largest export, soybeans. Now, we have a diplomatic relationship with Taiwan, 66 years old.
And we share principles and values. This world we live in, which is no longer the bipolar of the Cold War, it is a multipolar world, I believe that what has to prevail are the national interests of each country. We may have a very important affinity with the United States, but we also have a very deep trade relationship with China.
How do you see the link with Russia with the circumstance of the war against Ukraine?
Paraguay has a very deep commercial relationship with Russia, one of the main export markets for Paraguayan beef. But we cannot help but sympathize with Ukraine. In Paraguay 153 years ago the cruelest war ended where we lost 60% of the territory, 90% of the male population and it was precisely the invasion of the largest on the weakest. (The War of the Triple Alliance in which Brazilians and Argentines destroyed the Paraguayan population)
Will you join these proposals to relaunch organizations such as Unasur promoted by Brazil?
-I have a strong vocation for integration. It embodies me to defend my ideas, but also to listen to the ideas of others. I am not afraid that we do not all share the same vision. I do agree that we can sit at the table, call it UNASUR, CELAC, Mercosur, Pacific Alliance. I think that one of the great consequences of the pandemic has been a process of disintegration, we have concentrated more and more on looking within our territory and this has delayed the integration process.
We are discussing whether the waterway will be controlled by China or by the United States. The waterway has to be controlled by the countries that are part of the waterway. So I'm going to try to be that voice that can bring wisdom and rationality to policy decisions that have a huge impact on that region and the world.
-Speaking of the waterway, there is a latent claim of Paraguay that does not want Argentina to charge tolls as it is already doing.
-We have to streamline trade, reduce and not add costs. Finally we end up transferring those costs to the final consumer and people will buy another product.
In other words, he is against the collection of that toll as is the outgoing government of Mario Abdo Benitez.
Santiago Peña. EFE
- Likewise. The toll is one of the issues we have to discuss. We have to discuss signage, dredging, that it is navigable 365 days a year. That is the most important route of our country and generates very important business and could mean a repositioning of Mercosur and South America in what is international markets.
Apart from the waterway, today we have a connecting channel that is the bioceanic route, which connects the Atlantic with the Pacific and passes through the center of Paraguay. There are countless issues that I would love to be able to carry forward from the presidency of Paraguay.
Natasha Niebieskikwiat
Marcelo Cantelmi