At the start of the week, the weather in Bavaria continues to be late autumn to wintery. An official warning of continuous rain concerns southern Bavaria. In the mountains, up to 50 cm of fresh snow awaits us.
Munich – The good news first: Not everywhere in Bavaria is the weather determined by these dark, low-hanging clouds that roll over the not at all white-blue Bavarian sky day in, day out.
Current weather in Bavaria: Sun in the north, continuous rain in the south
The weather is and remains divided into two parts in the Free State. On Sunday (14 May) north of the Danube, the sun will show up from time to time. In Regensburg, for example, 18 degrees are reached every day. In Nuremberg, it should even clear up completely on Sunday afternoon, with highs of 18 to 19 degrees.
Wet, wetter, Bavarian weather: In Kelheim, the Danube is currently overflowing its banks and a new warning of continuous rain in the south has been issued. © Bernd März/Imago/Screenshot DWD warning map
South of the Weißwurst equator, which, by the way, had slight flooding on Saturday (see picture), there is a threat of further continuous rain. The above-mentioned thick clouds continue to roll over the south of Bavaria from southeast to northwest, only to make an arc and crash back against the Alps and rain down again. Therefore, there is currently a warning from the German Weather Service (DWD) for all southern districts of Swabia and Upper Bavaria (see list below).
Danger of continuous rain in southern Bavaria: Threatening "Vb low" triggers dangerous weather conditions
Behind this is a threatening low, sandwiched between two high-pressure systems in western and eastern Europe. Between the two highs, this pushes warm and humid air from the Mediterranean region to Bavaria. Meteorologists call lows with this trajectory Vb lows (pronounced: five-b).
Animated ground pressure development over Europe from the ICON13 model from Sunday, May 14. You can clearly see the low in green that pushes towards Bavaria between the two highs. © Screenshot DWD
Meteorologist on flood risk: "Certain alarm signal in expert circles"
DWD meteorologist Sebastian Altnau writes in a recent statement:
"Low-pressure systems with such a track always cause a certain alarm signal in meteorological circles. Such weather conditions are predestined to cause flooding. Since low-pressure areas in the northern hemisphere rotate counterclockwise, the Vb lows carry very humid and warm Mediterranean air on their front. At the same time, cooler air masses far over Western Europe continue to flow south on the western flank of the lows. The warm, humid air masses from the Mediterranean Sea are therefore forced to glide over the cooler ones. In some cases, these uplift processes are associated with longer-lasting and more abundant precipitation."
However, the current weather models assume that the low pressure system will only cut Bavaria and move into the Baltic States via the Czech Republic and Poland. Nevertheless, DWD expert Altnau warns: "Vb lows usually cause headaches for the models and also for meteorologists and can cause one or two surprises." In any case, there will also be continuous rain on the western flank of the low. And: The weather situation remains stable, which means that in the coming days further Vb lows can befall us on the same path.
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Official warning of continuous rain in southern Bavaria – these districts are affected
For the time being, however, there is already an official warning of continuous rain. This affects the entire edge of the Alps - i.e. Allgäu and southern Upper Bavaria. The districts in detail from west to east:
- Oberallgäu
- Ostallgäu
- Weilheim-Schongau
- Garmisch-Partenkirchen
- Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen
- Miesbach
- Rosenheim
- Traunstein
- Berchtesgadener Land
The warning is valid from Sunday, 12 noon, until Monday, 18 p.m. During the warning period, continuous rain occurs with precipitation amounts of up to 60 liters per square meter.
Hikers beware: Lots of fresh snow in Bavaria's mountains - snow line drops to 1500 meters
At the same time, the snow line drops to 1500 meters and thus also reaches Bavaria's smaller Alpine peaks. Therefore, all excursionists and hikers are warned. What falls as continuous rain in the valley falls as a lot of fresh snow on the mountain. The DWD forecasts up to 50 cm by Monday. Further down up to 20 cm. It will be smooth.
Weather in Bavaria remains cold and grey in the south – risk of ground frost increases
And the further prospects at the start of the week unfortunately do not promise much new. It remains cold and wet in the south of Bavaria. And the north will also get a lot of rain from Tuesday at the latest. In the south, the daily highs hardly climb above 12 degrees. In the north, 21 degrees will be reached in Aschaffenburg on Monday. But on Wednesday there will only be a maximum of 16 degrees. In the night on Thursday, the DWD forecasts local ground frost.
Another little weather small talk tip for all those who are slowly running out of things to talk about in the face of the same dark clouds: The above-mentioned Vb low hits the Italian and Dalmatian Adriatic really hard. There, up to 200 litres per square metre will rain locally until Monday. There is a greater risk of severe weather with floods, landslides and mudslides. So fleeing quickly to the south is not a solution either.
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