Erdogan or Kiliçdaroglu? The presidential election in Turkey is now only between these two men, who have an appointment for a second round that promises to be very close on May 28. With respectively 49.4% and 45% of the vote, the two opponents left only crumbs to the other two candidates: Sinan Ogan and Muharrem Ince. Yet they are the ones who could swing the election. But who are they and who should they support?
Otherwise Ogan, the dissident of the "Turkish nationalists"
He is the real third man in this election, the one to whom all eyes turn. Otherwise Ogan, with nearly 5.2% of the vote, or nearly 3 million votes, can make Erdogan tremble if he lines up behind Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. But this is very far from being done. "What I want is clear is the departure of the Syrians. All refugees must return home. The candidate who agrees with this and puts this policy into practice, I will vote for him," he said in his first speech after the results.
What rather bring him closer to Recep Tayyip Erdogan than Kemal Kiliçdaroglu? Neither. Former MP for the MHP, Otherwise Ogan was twice expelled from the Nationalist Action Party for his differences with leader Devlet Bahçeli, who had allied himself with the Turkish president...
Oyumuzu kullandık. Vatanımıza milletimize hayırlı olsun. Bu akşam sandıktan çıkacak sonuç milletimizin hayrına olacaktır inşallah. Lütfen sandığa gidiniz, oylarımıza sahip çıkınız. #OAnGeliyor #SinanOgan pic.twitter.com/piZyv1NMGh
— Dr. Sinan Oğan (@DrSinanOgan) May 14, 2023
This academic of Azerbaijani origin, with ultranationalist and anti-Kurdish positions, has always preferred to go it alone in Turkish political life. Claiming to be "independent presidential candidate of Turkish nationalists", the 55-year-old is running without a party but is supported by the ATA alliance, a bloc of four parties known for their nationalist positions.
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If he knows – as he told Fox TV that Turkish nationalists will be "the keys to this election" – otherwise Ogan takes advantage and plays his individual card to the fullest. He has already indicated that he will sit at the table of those who invite him with "demands like ministries": "We will not be free partners."
Muharrem Ince, the loser of 2018
It is finally a surprise to find him here. And for good reason, Muharrem Ince, the leader of the Nation Party (Memleket), had withdrawn his candidacy three days before the election. But too late, credited with 2 to 4% of voting intentions in the latest polls, it was still possible to vote for him this Sunday. And more than 230,000 Turks expressed their support, or 0.42% of the vote. A nothing that could still be decisive on May 28.
" READ ALSO Presidential election in Turkey: Erdogan is no longer unshakable
And this 0.4% should go directly to Kemal Kiliçdaroglu's squad. Muharrem Ince has also withdrawn his candidacy urgently in his favor, after the resignation of several of the cadres of his party, worrying that his candidacy prevents the overthrow of Erdogan. "I don't want them to have an apology," he said, explaining that the opposition alliance will "blame all the blame" on him if it loses.
Benim tek derdim Türkiye, tek derdim Memleket. Bu yüzden siz değerli yurttaşlarımızdan isteğim; her evden bir oy Memleket Partisi'ne! #MemleketMeclise pic.twitter.com/xyypfpdMCc
— Muharrem İNCE (@vekilince) May 11, 2023
The 59-year-old was the Turkish president's main opponent in 2018 in previous elections. With nearly 30% of the vote, the unfortunate candidate had failed to push the man in power since 2003 to a second round. This former professor of physics and chemistry was particularly known for having promised, if elected, to sell the presidential palace built under Erdogan or to transform it into a "temple of knowledge". Perhaps he could blow this idea to Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, even though, for the moment, he has not officially given any voting instructions.
