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Election thriller in Turkey - decision falls in run-off election

2023-05-15T01:46:40.888Z

Highlights: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to face a runoff election for the first time. Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu received 44.79 percent of the vote. Both fell short of an absolute majority of 50 percent and will have to go to a run-off election on May 28. Since the introduction of a presidential system in 2018, the president has had far-reaching powers, but the parliament with its 600 deputies has been weakened. It is feared that the NATO country could become even more autocratic under another five years.



Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a speech at the party's headquarters in Ankara after the presidential election. © Ali Unal/AP/dpa

The race for the presidency between incumbent Erdogan and his challenger Kilicdaroglu was close - and is likely to enter a second round. For Erdogan, the result is a setback.

After 20 years in power, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to face a runoff election for the first time.

At the level of around 95 percent of the ballot boxes counted at home and around 37 percent abroad, Erdogan was at 49.49 percent of the votes, said the chief electoral authority, Ahmet Yener, in Ankara on Monday morning (as of 3:00 a.m. CEST). Opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu received 44.79 percent of the vote. Both fell short of an absolute majority of 50 percent and will have to go to a run-off election on May 28.

Outsiders have an important role to play

Sinan Ogan of the ultra-nationalist Ata Alliance landed in third place with around 5.3 percent. The outsider could still play an important role. In the run-off election, it will be important which election recommendation he makes beforehand.

Erdogan's ruling alliance leads in parliamentary elections

The electoral authority did not initially announce the result of the parliamentary election. However, it became apparent that Erdogan's ruling alliance was able to defend its majority. Since the introduction of a presidential system in 2018, the president has had far-reaching powers, but the parliament with its 600 deputies has been weakened.

Election important for the future of the country

The election was considered trend-setting. It is feared that the NATO country could become even more autocratic under another five years of Erdogan. The 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu is a candidate for a broad alliance of six parties. He promises a return to a parliamentary system as well as to democracy and the rule of law. The election is also being closely watched internationally. A new government would have an impact on conflicts in the region, such as the war in Syria, but also on relations with the EU and Germany.

War of nerves over numbers

Even at the beginning of the vote, there were doubts about the figures published by the Anadolu State Agency. The opposition mayors of the metropolises of Istanbul and Ankara regularly appeared before the press and accused the government of embellishing Erdogan's values. Kilicdaroglu accused Erdogan's AKP party of blocking the counting in opposition strongholds with objections. Erdogan, in turn, accused the opposition of "robbery of the national will."

Erdogan counted - opposition combative

Even if Erdogan can still win in two weeks, the result is a setback for the 69-year-old Erdogan. In his 20 years in power, he has won every national election so far. Erdogan first became prime minister in 2003 and has been president since 2014. The aura of the invincible is lost to him by this run-off election. Erdogan nevertheless appeared in a good mood in front of cheering supporters in Ankara during the night and sang a song.

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Kilicdaroglu appeared in front of the press during the night together with the party leaders of his six-party alliance. "Erdogan, despite his defamation and insults, did not achieve the result he expected," he said.

New situation for all parties involved

All sides are now confronted with a completely new situation - it is not only the first run-off election for Erdogan, but also for challenger Kilicdaroglu - and for the citizens. The president has only been directly elected by the people since 2014.

Parliament could be decisive

All eyes are now on the Grand National Assembly in Ankara. Erdogan's Islamic-conservative AKP and its ultra-nationalist partner MHP are expected to be able to maintain their absolute majority there. In this case, Erdogan can argue with the danger of a government crisis before the run-off election. And he did it promptly on Monday night. He was sure that voters would prefer "security and stability" in a run-off election, he said.

Erdogan alluded to the fact that parliament and the president could theoretically block each other if the majority of MPs fell to the ruling alliance, but the presidency fell to the opposition or vice versa. Although the president can issue a decree without the consent of parliament, if the parliament passes a law on the same subject, the decree would become invalid. In any case, Turkey will have a difficult two weeks ahead of it. The national currency, the lira, could continue to lose value due to the uncertain situation.

Voting was calm - election campaign unfair

The election campaign was also dominated by the devastating earthquake of 6 February in southeastern Turkey. How high the voter turnout was in the affected regions will become clear at the end of the count. According to an initial assessment by the competent authority, the election went off without a hitch. Opposition politicians reported minor incidents from various provinces.

Supporters of Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the center-left and pro-secular Republican People's Party (CHP), cheer outside the party's headquarters in Ankara. © -/AP/dpa

The election campaign was considered unfair, also because of the government's media supremacy. Erdogan had sharply attacked the opposition and described his opponent as a "drunkard" and a "terrorist". The opposition countered with a positive campaign. Even before the run-off election, Erdogan will be able to rely on most of the media and the government majority in parliament.

What are Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu doing to win votes?

Erdogan advertises above all with election gifts, such as the increase in civil servants' salaries and major projects in infrastructure and the arms industry. Kilicdaroglu promises to fight corruption and inflation and democratize the country. On the migration issue, he strikes a nationalist tone. He wants to send back the approximately 3.5 million refugees from Syria and renegotiate the refugee agreement with the EU.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu speaks at the party headquarters in Ankara. © -/AP/dpa

A total of around 64 million people were called to vote, including around 3.4 million abroad. Dpa

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-05-15

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