Even after the nuclear phase-out, electricity is still flowing, and it has not become significantly more expensive. However, this is no reason to sit back.
Munich – The Greens are happy to share a report. Because what is written there plays into the hands of their politicians: Contrary to fears, electricity has even become cheaper since the nuclear phase-out in Germany. " ... all the shouting of the #CSU doesn't help. That's the reality, that's 2023!" wrote the Bavarian state parliamentary group. But especially in Bavaria, the situation is not quite so simple.
In any case, the lights have not gone out in Germany so far. The nuclear power plant stretching operation was not necessary for the secure power supply, according to a study commissioned by Greenpeace. The German Environmental Aid (DUH) published an analysis according to which nuclear power does not make a relevant contribution to energy security. Both all in April. But a month later, Federal Network Agency Vice President Barbie Kornelia Haller told BR about the nuclear power plant shutdown: "The effects are extremely small".
The main reasons:
- In spring, electricity on the stock exchange becomes cheaper and cheaper because more hydropower is available.
- Coal-fired power plants have returned from reserve.
- According to calculations by the Federal Network Agency, the demand for foreign replacement power plants in winter 23/24 will fall despite the nuclear phase-out – at least a little from 1.4 to 1.3 gigawatts.
- According to the ZSW and the BDEW, the share of renewable energies in electricity generation in the first quarter of 2023 was around 47 percent.
Part of it is simply forward-looking management. "Market players have already adapted to the new situation. Electricity is already being traded for the coming weeks and months, and there are no discernible price increases on the markets," said energy market expert Christina Wallraf from the NRW consumer advice center back in April on the nuclear power plant phase-out. The German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) also concluded in its "Electricity Price Analysis" for April 2023 that prices are tending to fall again.
The Isar 2 nuclear power plant in Bavaria no longer supplies electricity. © Armin Weigel/dpa
Grid expansion probably the bigger problem than a "dark doldrums"
Haller qualified in an interview with BR, however, that the effect of the nuclear phase-out would only be able to be seen in a year or two. It is therefore possible that it is a bit premature for Green Party MP Ludwig Hartmann to share the BR article on Twitter and rejoice: "The 'renaissance of coal' failed to materialize."
The south of the country in particular is still dependent on reserve power plants, such as hydroelectric power plants in Switzerland or gas-fired power plants in Austria. Federal Network Agency President Klaus Müller warned at the end of April that the challenge to system stability was not a "dark doldrums". Rather, it is the inadequate expansion of the grid, which leads to high consumption in the south, and to a great deal of renewable generation in the north.
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How is the "grid reserve" intended?
Power plants of the grid reserve are intended to help prevent overloads in the transmission grid. In the event of an imminent bottleneck, generation plants are reduced or shut down before the grid bottleneck. At the same time, reserve power plants are being ramped up in the south, where the electricity is needed. This balancing mechanism is also called "redispatch".
The application is not unusual: between October 2022 and mid-April 2023, transmission system operators demanded redispatch measures on 117 out of 197 days.
According to the study, Bavaria can become climate-neutral by 2040
The Association of Bavarian Energy and Water Management (VEBW) came to the conclusion last month: Bavaria can become climate-neutral by 2040. But it will be expensive. In total, the study contains four scenarios. What they all have in common is that gross electricity consumption increases significantly. From now until then, 2800 solar power systems would have to be installed on rooftops every week, as well as ground-mounted systems the size of 54 football pitches and two wind turbines.
The changeover is accompanied by high costs. By 2040, the FfE for Bavaria assumes additional costs of 113 billion euros compared to the current level in the baseline scenario. This includes savings - for example due to the loss of oil imports - but not infrastructure costs. However, the latter plays an important role, because even with an expansion of renewable energies, Bavaria will still have to obtain about 30 percent of its electricity from other parts of Germany or abroad. (frs)
