Ecuador: new impeachment proceedings against President Lasso

Ecuador's parliament begins impeachment proceedings against unpopular conservative President Guillermo Lasso on Tuesday (May 16th), the second in less than a year in the country plagued by political wrangling and violence.

The left, which has a majority in the unicameral parliament, sees in this procedure an opportunity to get rid of the right-wing government and regain strength after the fall of its leader, former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), sentenced to eight years in prison in absentia for corruption and in exile in Belgium.

Accused of embezzlement

Guillermo Lasso, a 67-year-old former banker in power since 2021, is accused by critics of embezzlement under a state contract to transport crude oil. MPs had already tried to impeach him in June 2022, when Ecuador was in the grip of violent protests against the high cost of living. But they had failed to gather enough votes to do so, due to divisions in the opposition.

The impeachment trial, which Guillermo Lasso has planned to attend, opens at 10:00 a.m. and could last several days. The motion will need at least 92 votes among the 137 MPs for the Speaker to be ousted.

This procedure awakens the specter of political instability experienced by the country between 1997 and 2005, during which three presidents were overthrown by popular revolts. The difference this time is that Guillermo Lasso would be deposed "according to institutional rules" and not by force, said Esteban Nichols, a political scientist at the Simon Bolivar Andean University in Quito. Only one impeachment trial has been successful in the country's history: that of President Juan de Dios Martinez, ousted from power in 1933.

"Descent into hell of the country"

If he manages to keep his seat, Guillermo Lasso will have no choice but "to continue to witness the descent into hell of the country", governing with a parliament where the opposition is in the majority and without any prospect of dialogue, said constitutionalist Rafael Oyarte to AFP. The supporters of Guillermo Lasso and their allies have only 25 deputies, against 49 for the pro-Correa camp to which are added the 25 of the Pachakutik, powerful political arm of the indigenous movement. Several social organizations hostile to Guillermo Lasso have planned to demonstrate Tuesday during the trial, during which the head of state will have three hours to present his defense in the hemicycle.

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The opposition "is only interested in destabilization, and not in stability and institutional strengthening that the country so badly needs," Interior Minister Henry Cucalon told reporters. This trial is a "ploy" and there is "not the slightest evidence to support a charge or impeachment," he said. Guillermo Lasso also has a serious ace up his sleeve: the so-called "crusader death" constitutional mechanism, which would allow him to dissolve Parliament and call early general elections while leaving power. "This is where there could be a social problem, a real instability," warns political scientist Esteban Nichols of the Simon Bolivar Andean University in Quito.

All this in a country that has been facing a wave of violence for months due to a power struggle between gangs involved in drug trafficking. "Crusader death" was invented during the Correa era and has never been used until now. For Rafael Oyarte, triggering this mechanism would be a sign of "political irresponsibility" for Guillermo Lasso because it would benefit the pro-Correa. "Even if it is not certain that they will get the presidency of the Republic, one thing is certain: their deputies, who are currently 49 out of 137, will win more seats," he said. If he is impeached, Guillermo Lasso will be replaced by his vice-president Alfredo Borrero who will finish his four-year term.