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Green pain also in Bavaria survey: Söder is flying high - but only with Aiwanger

2023-05-16T15:57:16.906Z

Highlights: A new poll before the Bavarian election could make the CSU and Free Voters rejoice. But there are also warning signs. The Greens are also losing in the Free State. CSU leader Markus Söder has room for improvement in terms of credibility. A CSU sole government seems attractive only to comparatively few Bavarians.. The SPD can also rejoice: its result grows from 9 to 11 percent in the BR survey. In the case of the other parties in the state parliament, the worry lines are likely to grow.



Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Soeder and Minister of Economic Affairs Hubert Aiwanger at a joint meeting in summer 2022 (symbolic image). © Frank Hoermann / SVEN SIMON / Imago

A new poll before the Bavarian election could make the CSU and Free Voters rejoice. But there are also warning signs. The Greens are also losing in the Free State.

Munich - Almost five months before the Bavarian elections, the opposition is apparently still unable to find any campaign leverage: A new "Bavaria trend" by the infratest dimap institute for BR continues to see a stable majority among the governing parties CSU and Free Voters. Both even made further gains in the Sunday question published on Tuesday (16 May).

However, marginal questions of the survey also show that Söder has room for improvement in terms of credibility – and a CSU sole government seems attractive only to comparatively few Bavarians.

In any case, the CSU now comes to 39 percent, which is one point more than last time. The Free Voters have gained 2 points to 12 percent. At a modest level, the SPD can also rejoice: its result grows from 9 to 11 percent in the BR survey. The previous survey was carried out in January. In the case of the other parties in the state parliament, the worry lines are likely to grow.

Greens are also weakening in Bavaria - but the AfD is also losing ground in the "Bavarian trend"

Compared to the January survey, the Greens have to accept a minus of 2 percentage points and are now at 16 percent. It is unclear whether this is due to federal policy. However, the Greens had also achieved a weak result in the Bremen election on Sunday. CSU leader Markus Söder had recently repeatedly staged himself as a main opponent of the heating plans of Green Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck.

Unlike at the federal level, however, the AfD is also slightly in decline in Bavaria - at least according to the data of the "Bayerntrend". Söder had also repeatedly referred to the AfD and, among other things, called for a more restrictive asylum and border policy. In the winter, the CSU had remained largely silent on migration issues. In the background are also the experiences from the 2018 state election, when the Christian Socialists sometimes lead a sharply right-wing course. Later, the party acknowledged mistakes.

The AfD is now losing one percentage point in the poll to 12 percent. The FDP can maintain its value from January. With the 4 percent, however, it would not be represented in the Bavarian state parliament.

'Bayerntrend' May'Bayerntrend' January
CSU39%38%
Free Voters12%10%
Green16%18%
Afd12%13%
SPD11%9%
FDP4%4%
Other6%8%

Bavaria poll and the coalitions: Söder only with Aiwanger - Black-Green fails with the voters

In any case, a majority of citizens in Bavaria seem to want a continuation of the coalition of CSU and Free Voters. 51 percent of respondents rated this option as very good or good. Reason to be happy for Hubert Aiwanger: Only 35 percent said that about a CSU sole government.

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According to the polls, 33 percent would find a CSU-FDP coalition good or very good, 27 percent for the black-red coalition and only 23 percent for the black-green coalition. Söder has repeatedly ruled out this variant. By comparison, shortly before the 2018 state election, 44 percent of all respondents at the time had rated a black-green option positively.

Curious survey results for Bavaria: Söder makes sympathy plus - but satisfaction stagnates

However, the CSU and Free Voters have not been able to make any progress in terms of satisfaction with the state government since October 2022: 47 percent are still satisfied, 4 percent are even very satisfied. Here, there is also a damper for Aiwanger in the fine print: While 81 percent of CSU supporters are satisfied with the work of the state government, only 52 percent of supporters of the Free Voters are satisfied. Here, 44 percent of those surveyed were less or not at all satisfied.

Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) has been able to make gains in many areas compared to a "Bavarian trend" before the 2018 state election: 79 percent (plus 9) now say he fits in with Bavaria. 78 percent (plus 7) consider him to be a strong leader, 59 percent (plus 3) to be close to the people and 55 percent (plus 10) to be likeable. However, today 76 percent (plus 5) of those surveyed say that Söder is polarizing. What's more, only 43 percent (minus 1) consider the Swiss franc to be credible.

For the May "Bavaria Trend", Infratest dimap surveyed 9 eligible voters on behalf of Bayerischer Rundfunk from 13 to 1176 May. (fn/dpa

)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-05-16

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