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Between Russia, China and the West: Where are the ex-Soviet states heading?

2023-05-17T12:18:26.656Z

Highlights: Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine shows Moscow's imperial aspirations. But increasingly, "post-Soviet" countries are looking for alternatives to economic dependence on Russia. Russia's war against Ukraine is changing the dynamics of regional integration in Eurasia, says Julia Langbein of the Center for East European and International Studies of the Frankfurter Rundschau of IPPEN. Even in the security and military spheres, there are tendencies to become more independent of Moscow, she says.



The leaders of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (from left) will take part in a ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow in May on "Victory Day". © IMAGO/Alexei Maishev

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine shows Moscow's imperial aspirations. But increasingly, "post-Soviet" countries are looking for alternatives to economic dependence on Russia.

Cologne – Let's start with a correction: The term "post-Soviet states" is misleading. This encompasses a regional area, more specifically: the countries of the former Soviet Union. To put it bluntly: The EU member states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, as well as Ukraine and Moldova, Moscow's ally Belarus or totalitarian Turkmenistan are lumped together. But that's too simplistic. "The variance, the differences in the development paths of the 15 states after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, is not captured by the term 'post-Soviet'," says Dr. Julia Langbein of the Center for East European and International Studies of the Frankfurter Rundschau of IPPEN. MEDIA.

And indeed, the states that emerged from the USSR developed very differently. Roughly subdivided, one now speaks of Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the South Caucasus. While the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia became part of the European Union in 2004 and Ukraine and Moldova received EU candidate status in 2022 under the impact of Russia's war of aggression, many other "post-Soviet" countries are authoritarian and totalitarian systems – and find themselves in the area of tension between Russia and China.

Russia: For Vladimir Putin, the collapse of the Soviet Union is a "tragedy" – countries are increasingly distancing themselves

Russian leader Vladimir Putin long ago – in December 2001 – described the collapse of the Soviet Union as a "tragedy". When he ordered the attack on Ukraine more than two decades later, this statement was dug out of the moth box of history. But despite his imperial ideas, more and more of the 15 "post-Soviet" states are turning their backs on the Kremlin chief, in many cases long before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is despite the fact that Russia, as a security power, leads the military alliance "Collective Security Treaty Organization" (CSTO), whose other members are currently Armenia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

It is a fact that the Baltics, Ukraine and Moldova have taken the opposite path of Russia. But other countries are also increasingly distancing themselves. This applies above all to the economic sector, in particular the Eurasian Economic Union, a single market with a customs union, which includes the countries of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. "Russia's war against Ukraine is changing the dynamics of regional integration in Eurasia. Many countries are skeptical about deeper integration within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union," says Langbein. This is despite the fact that Russia's economy has so far proven to be more resilient in the face of Western sanctions than many expected.

Efforts to distance themselves from Putin's Russia

Even in the security and military spheres, where Russia has exerted a strong influence in many countries such as Armenia, there are tendencies to become more independent of Moscow, says Langbein. In the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan, for example, Armenia is disappointed by Russia's role, the expert said. In the meantime, they are looking more closely at the USA and the EU.

And Georgia also plays a special role. The country has gone through a turbulent period, with democratization and now more authoritarian tendencies. Russia occupied autonomous territories in the north of the country in 2008. At that time, hardly any state in the West reacted to this with serious consequences for Moscow. "Georgia's relationship with the EU is ambivalent. A large part of the population is in favour of integration into the EU. But the current government is pursuing an increasingly authoritarian course and does not support Western sanctions against Russia," says Julia Langbein. But even if it is right not to offer Georgia candidate status at the moment, the EU must support reform-oriented forces and civil society currents on the ground. "Because these are the people who take to the streets and want to go towards the EU," says Langbein – and adds: "Without reform-oriented forces at home, support for more political and economic competition is not possible."

Again, a special case is Belarus. Minsk is heavily dependent on Russia and a key ally in the attack on Ukraine. Recently, Moscow even announced that it would station nuclear weapons in the neighboring state.

Role of the EU: "More than time for the West to signal: We are here"

So Russia is leaving a void in more and more countries. Who can occupy them? In Moldova or Ukraine, this has long been filled by a strong orientation towards the EU. Here, Brussels is faced with the challenge of accompanying the accession processes and reforming itself institutionally in such a way that the enlargement round can be achieved – without becoming incapable of acting. Keyword: majority decisions.

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In the South Caucasus, on the other hand, according to Julia Langbein, one can see how important it is for the EU and the USA to position themselves as a security policy alternative to Russia. According to Langbein, it is "more than time for the West to signal: We are here."

Central Asia: China's strong pull

The situation in Central Asia is more complex. It is true that Moscow's reputation as a stable partner in the economy and security policy is also suffering there. According to the German Press Agency, for example, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rakhmon accused Putin last October of ignoring smaller countries as he had already done in Soviet times. And Kazakhstan is also distancing itself from the Ukraine war. Langbein: "On the one hand, there has been growing concern in Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan about excessive economic dependence on Russia, but on the other hand, the West is not necessarily an alternative partner for such authoritarian regimes."

As a result, China is gaining in importance as a trading partner and engine for alternative regional integration efforts in the geopolitically important and resource-rich regions. The starting signal for a closer relationship is likely to be the upcoming summit meeting "Central Asia – China" on Thursday and Friday in Xi'an, China. The winner of Russia's eroding influence could thus be powerful China – as the new power of order in Central Asia.

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-05-17

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