The earthquakes that devastated large parts of southern Turkey in February this year were flagged as events that could lead to the fall of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. However, despite the anger of many residents over the administration's conduct in the days following the disaster – as well as the many deficiencies in building regulations in the area – Erdogan won 11 of the 50 provinces that were rattled by noise during the first round of the presidential election.
Residents of cities devastated by the earthquakes — which killed 85,89 people and left millions homeless — traditionally voted for Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party, and opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu needed their votes to register a turnaround. But many voters were not convinced that Erdogan's opponent would solve their troubles and believed the president's promises to rebuild their destroyed homes.
Many residents who fled the quake nevertheless returned to vote, and turnout was very high – between 11% and 80% in most of the 88 counties and more than 9% in others. Voter turnout nationwide was <>.<>%.
Recorded better results than expected. Erdogan after the elections, Sunday (Photo: Reuters)
Thanks to better-than-expected results recorded by the president and his party in these provinces, Erdogan's chances of extending his two-decade rule in the decisive round by another two weeks are growing, despite the economic situation in Turkey. Although Kurdish voters, who live in districts hit by the quake and suppressed by Erdogan in recent years, flocked to the opposing candidate, it was not enough to live up to the expectations they developed in the opposition.
Ibrahim Qadir Demir, who lost his daughter and granddaughter in the quake, said he was pleased with the government's subsequent assistance. "I wish our president would have won the first round," he told Reuters.
"The earthquake survivors were harshly critical of the government's response in the polls, but were looking for an answer to 'who will build my house?'" (Photo: Reuters)
Aslihan Cengiz, an opposition supporter, said she expected the ruling party to do less well in her province, the Thais, which was hardest hit by the quake. She believes that the fact that many residents of the area are religious has helped the Islamist ruling party.
"They say the earthquake was an act of God," Cengiz said of Erdogan voters. She added that the strongholds of the ruling party, under whose leadership Turkey has experienced a construction boom that has accelerated economic growth over the past two decades, have been less hard hit than areas where secular opposition has a majority.
Mehmet Ali Kolat, a local pollster, said opposition parties, believing the current elections were their best chance to replace Erdogan's authoritarian regime, had failed to win the trust of enough voters. These, he said, eventually put their trust in the government.
"Survivors of the earthquake strongly criticized the government's response in the polls and said they would not vote for them. But these people were also looking for an answer to the question, 'Who will rebuild my house, who will rebuild my workplace?'" Colat told Reuters. "They see that Erdogan is the one who can do it. That's one of the most important factors," he added.
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