It expired Thursday night. The agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea, crucial for the world's food supply, was extended Wednesday by two months, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced at an opportune time, as he seeks a third term.
As in March, the extension is 60 days, instead of the 120 initially planned by the "Black Sea Initiative", a set of two agreements sponsored by the United Nations and Turkey, concluded separately with Kiev and Moscow in July 2022. Over the past ten months, it has exported more than 30 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain.
"We are grateful to our partners, the UN and Turkey, for their efforts to strengthen global food security," responded in the wake on Twitter the Deputy Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine, Oleksandr Kubrakov, who follows the file.
#BlackSeaGrainInitiative has been unblocked, continue to be valid till 18July as signed before. Grateful for our partners @UN 🇺🇳and Türkiye 🇹🇷for efforts in strengthening 🌏 food security. Main challenge now is to make #BSGI efficient by cancellation artificial barriers. pic.twitter.com/OIzLD2Nt4W
— Oleksandr Kubrakov (@OlKubrakov) May 17, 2023
At the time of the previous renewal, Moscow had explained that it would condition any new renewal on improvements in its own exports of cereals and fertilizers. These are indirectly affected by the sanctions imposed on its banks and the reluctance of insurers and carriers.
Russian grain and fertilizer exports remain 'hampered'
Russia had listed five demands to extend the deal, including reconnecting Russian agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank to the Swift international banking system and removing obstructions to insure ships and access foreign ports.
"Our main assessments of the agreements (...) have not changed," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday, while Moscow says exports of Russian fertilizers and food products remain hampered. "Imbalances in their implementation must be corrected as soon as possible," she added.
For his part, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the extension of the corridor for two months, "good news for the world", according to him, while saying he hoped for a broader agreement and answers to questions that he said remained "unanswered".
Controls in dribs and drabs.
Even amputated by a quarter of its arable land, with "an expected production in 2023 down 50% compared to 2021", the Ukrainian contribution "remains vital", explained to AFP SĂ©bastien Abis, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), before Wednesday's announcement.
Since May 6, no boats entering the corridor (empty) had been inspected, and checks on outgoing vessels are being carried out in dribs and drabs, according to data from the Istanbul Joint Coordination Center, which is in charge of inspections at the entrance to the Bosphorus. The inspection of the vessels carrying the grain, carried out by representatives of the four parties to the agreement, was a demand of Moscow to ensure that they would not simultaneously deliver weapons to Ukraine.
Cereal prices down
After reaching a peak in May 2022, with wheat at nearly 440 euros per tonne on the European market, prices have fallen, until falling below their pre-war level, around 235 euros recently, in mid-May. A few minutes after this announcement, wheat prices fell back on the European market, falling below 226 euros per tonne for a delivery in September, down more than 8 euros compared to the day before. Maize marked a similar decline, trading around 220 euros per tonne for delivery in June.
For SĂ©bastien Poncelet, analyst at Agritel, the downward trend in the markets is explained by "the importance of grain reserves in the world". The situation today, he explains, is totally different from that of a year ago, when no ships were circulating in the Black Sea and the world was desperately looking for a solution to export the millions of tons of grain stored in Ukrainian silos.
In the very short term, an interruption of the Black Sea maritime corridor would not have been "dramatic anyway because there is not much left to export", according to Damien Vercambre, but it would be "critical at the end of summer" if Ukraine could not export its new harvest. However, the new deadline for the agreement is set for mid-July.