Empty ammunition boxes in Dolyna in Ukraine's Donetsk region on May 8, 2023: Can Western allies supply enough ammunition and weapons for the counteroffensive? © IMAGO/Michael Brochstein/ ZUMA Wire
Ukraine's counteroffensive depends on arms deliveries – but Western partners are unlikely to keep up with the production of ammunition and weapons.
Kiev - Ukraine is still delaying the start of its planned major offensive. They want to wait until all promised military vehicles have arrived, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week. "We need a little more time," the president said. In addition to weapons, Ukraine is probably also waiting for more ammunition, military experts say. This could fail because of the Western allies, who, according to a report in the US newspaper Washington Post, cannot keep up with production.
Ukraine waited for weapons and ammunition from the West – but production may stall
It is possible that the ammunition is currently the bottleneck "that Zelenskyy wants to fix before risking the lives of his soldiers," Simon Schlegel, the senior Ukraine analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Euronews. "And this is not only a problem of military supplies, but also an industrial problem, a production problem," the analyst continued.
Supplies could be tight, as the West did not convert its industrial production to the war situation in time. As early as April last year, it was obvious that the Ukraine war would last longer and that investments would have to be made in industry. But they have remained inactive, says Jack Watling, of the Royal United Services Institute, according to a report in the Washington Post on Thursday.
Will the offensive fail due to failure to prepare the delivery of weapons?
13 months of war had been allowed to pass before the industry had begun to be boosted, said former British military officer Richard Barrons. "We haven't seen the kind of industrial activity that would give Ukraine what it needs to fight on a large scale," Barrons continued.
"You don't have to be a great military analyst to realize that European countries that are making large investments in artillery production 13 months after the start of the war are a little late," Michael Kofman, director of the Russia study program at the Center for Naval Analyses, confirmed to the US newspaper.
Europe is not acting fast enough: "One to two years" for investment to arrive
So far, ammunition and weapons have usually been taken from the stocks of the countries. "We are now talking about a situation where we have to put money on the table because we have to invest in industrial capacity," Watling continued. In addition to NATO members the United States, the United Kingdom and Norway, the EU and NATO country France has so far signed "major new contracts with the defense industry that will allow them to invest in increased production capacity," NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said.
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Many European governments, however, have failed to act quickly enough to meet the growing demand for weapons, critics say. At the beginning of May, the European Commission also announced a program of 500 million euros to boost the production of artillery shells in Europe. This is a significant step, but it is coming far too slowly, according to military experts. In addition, no new contracts have yet been concluded. There is talk of one to two years until the investments could actually reach European arms and ammunition production.
Russia has already been able to boost military production - "Decisive weakness of Ukraine"
Before the start of the Ukraine war, the US produced 14,500 artillery shells per month, while EU production was roughly at a comparable level. U.S. production has already been increased to 20,000 rounds per month since the start of the war, and it has also invested in expanding capacity to reach 90,000 rounds per month, the report said. By comparison, last year the Ukrainian army fired 180,000 artillery shells per month and, according to Watling, currently consumes about 90,000 to 140,000 rounds per month.
Russia itself said it increased its defense spending by 282 percent in January and February of this year compared to the same period in 2021. Moscow now produces 2.5 million artillery shells per year, up from 1.7 million before the war. "Russia has the ability to mobilize its own economy to support the armed forces and control its own destiny in a way that Ukraine cannot," said former General Barrons. "The crucial weakness" of Ukraine "is its dependence on Western goods and industry."