A freight train derails in Crimea. Intelligence services see the supply of the Russian fleet at risk. The implications for Putin could be enormous.
London/Simferopol – Crimea is considered a strategic pivot in the Ukraine war. Russia has annexed the Black Sea peninsula since 2014, but it may be harder for Vladimir Putin to maintain control in the coming weeks. An act of sabotage last Thursday, May 18, now shows how fragile the infrastructure of the Russians in southeastern Ukraine really is. This could put increasing pressure on the Kremlin and ultimately jeopardize the power of the Russian president.
Possible turnaround in the Ukraine war: Train accident in Crimea could prepare counteroffensive
On the Russian-annexed peninsula of Crimea, a freight train derailed on Thursday – presumably sabotage could be the reason, as Russia announced after the incident. The problem is that the route in Crimea is the only connection to the port of Sevastopol, where the Russian Black Sea Fleet is stationed. The British Ministry of Defense said in this regard: "Russia will try to quickly repair the track, but the incident will disrupt the supply of supplies and, possibly, weapons, such as Kalibr cruise missiles, to the fleet."
A freight train derailed in Crimea on May 18. According to the railway, the incident occurred "through the interference of outsiders". © Uncredited/AP/dpa
The information comes from the daily report of the British Ministry of Defence, which has been published regularly since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Citing intelligence information, he paints a picture of the current course of the war. At least since Moscow and Kiev have been shooting at each other daily with propaganda reports, the British's assessment of the war in Ukraine has formed a counterpoint, which, however, is denounced in the Kremlin as a disinformation campaign.
The course of the Ukraine war shows tough fighting for Bakhmut: Crimea could become the focus of Ukraine
Since the outbreak of hostilities, Western experts have been explaining that targeted attacks on Russian infrastructure can lead significantly to a turnaround in the Ukraine war. While fighting continues in Bakhmut and observers are already saying that Putin's army has occupied almost the entire city, the Ukrainian armed forces have been relying on a broad counteroffensive since last week to push back the Russian aggressors in the region. North and south of Bakhmut, Volodymyr Zelensky's troops are said to have managed to capture important logistics points.
Although not all information on the course of the Ukraine war can be independently verified, the past few weeks have shown that the Ukrainians have succeeded in continuing to bring supplies and fresh forces to the front. In the region around Bakhmut, too, the defenders seem to be moving further and further away from defeat. It is currently no longer considered likely that the troops could be cut off by the Russian army. Previously, it was feared that Russia's army could encircle and defeat the remaining defenders.
The importance of Crimea for Putin remains immense: Sevastopol is an important military base
Overall, however, Russia also seems to be able to maintain its troop supply. Even though Bakhmut has been largely destroyed after months of fighting, the city in eastern Ukraine is still considered a symbolic region that could most likely influence the further course of the Ukraine war. Crimea is just as important: Sevastopol on the peninsula is Russia's only ice-free port with a connection to the Mediterranean Sea and the most important starting point for naval maneuvers in the Black Sea.
0
Also Read
Fighting in the Ukraine war takes its toll: Numerous soldiers die near Bakhmut - Kyiv relies on counterattacks
READ
"Patriot" damaged in Ukraine - because of blogger information: secret service shows repentance video
READ
Russia reports first attacks with new "Storm Shadows" from Ukraine
READ
Ukraine suffers heavy attacks from Russia – were there gaps in air defense?
READ
Turnaround in Ukraine war: Biden gives green light for fighter jet training
READ
Fancy a voyage of discovery?
My Area
After the annexation in 2014, the former Ukrainian peninsula flourished into a major military and trading hub for Russia and is also considered a contested arena in Vladimir Putin's current war. Again and again there are Ukrainian counterattacks on Russian infrastructure.
"Important psychological role" for the Ukraine war: What Crimea means for Russia and Ukraine
The derailed freight train, which recently caused problems, could also have fallen victim to these attacks. But why should Kiev intensify the attacks? The only railway line is the main supply route for the occupying forces in the southern Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Should Russian supplies be severely slowed down, this would favor a further counteroffensive in these areas.
For weeks, it has been expected that Ukraine could take broad action against Russia, not least because of the ongoing arms deliveries from the West, and possibly also intensify the attacks on Crimea. "The peninsula continues to play an important psychological and logistical role in enabling Russia's war in Ukraine," the British Ministry of Defense wrote. The fact that Russia could fear a large-scale attack on Crimea can also be evidenced by the fact that several defensive lines with trenches, tank traps and minefields that have recently sprung up in the region for defense.
Putin wants to prolong Ukraine war: Moscow could be under pressure after "Victory Day"
While British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace warned on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to prolong the war in Ukraine at all costs, a possible conquest of Crimea by Ukrainians could also put him under massive domestic pressure. The controversial referendum on 16 March 2014, in which the majority of the population of Russian origin voted in favour of annexing the peninsula to Russia, has always stood on shaky ground internationally, was not recognised by the majority and was severely sanctioned by the West.
In Russia, on the other hand, the annexation of Crimea was celebrated as a success at the time. The peninsula is an "inseparable" part of Russia, the Kremlin chief said at the time. If Ukraine were to regain control in the region, it would jeopardize Putin's political foothold in Russia. The fact that this is already showing its first cracks after 15 months of war was recently demonstrated on the so-called Victory Day, when the Russian nation celebrates the victory over Nazi Germany.
When will Putin be overthrown? Turnaround in Ukraine war and conquest of Crimea could strengthen enemies of the president
Although Putin insulted the West in his usual manner and invoked victory in Ukraine, in the end he also had to admit that the initial "special operation" in Ukraine had given way to war. Nor can the thousands of dead soldiers who have been mourned on the Russian side since the outbreak of the Ukraine war be discussed away.
A possible loss of the symbolic Crimea or significant territorial gains by the Ukrainians would further put a damper on the reputation of the Kremlin ruler and play into the hands of Putin's enemies. It is possible that such a scenario could even lead to the overthrow of Vladimir Putin. (fbu)
