MEXICO CITY- Mexican authorities maintained on Monday the volcanic alert traffic light in yellow phase 3 and continue the permanent surveillance of the activity of Popocatépetl, located between the states of Puebla, Morelos and State of Mexico.
"There is 24-hour surveillance on the behavior of the volcano," said Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, "we are pending and in preventive actions." 7,275 military personnel have been deployed and nine routes have been mapped out for a possible evacuation.
"There are those who argue that when there are eruptions it is more calming than when it is silent," Lopez Obrador said.
El Popocatepetl, May 22. National Center for Disaster Prevention
The increase in the alert level on Sunday, from yellow two to three, implies, among other things, that there may be light or moderate explosions that throw rocks around the crater, and ash emissions in nearby towns and some distant cities.
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"Lava domes are made that plug the outlet and increase the pressure. When the domes burst, more seismic and gas activity is recorded. But at the moment there is no catastrophic activity," explained Ana María Soler, a researcher in Geophysics at the Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), in an interview with Noticias Telemundo.
On evacuation plans, he explained that they are a normal procedure during these types of events. "That does not mean that something serious is going to happen," Soler said, "the drills are done to prove that the roads, the roads and all the equipment that is needed are in a timely manner."
The National Center for Disaster Prevention (Cenapred) reported Monday that the volcano continues to emit incandescent material with a constant column of about 5,240 feet high heading east-northwest. In addition, Civil Protection specified that, until yesterday, there have been 573 explosions of the volcano, of which 70% are minor.
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The authorities of Puebla reported that 24 consecutive hours of poor air quality are added and the fall of ashes continues.
The Government recommends that people in the regions near the volcano stay at home, wear masks and do not do outdoor sports. The suspension of face-to-face classes in public and private schools in 40 municipalities of Puebla was confirmed; five from the State of Mexico and seven from Tlaxcala.
Local media reported that Aeromexico reported that, due to the fall of ash from the volcano, and the problems that this generates in the Benito Juárez airports in Mexico City, Felipe Ángeles, in Santa Lucía, State of Mexico; and the airport of Veracruz, today has 46 affected flights between cancellations and delays.
According to Robin Campion, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the UNAM, the volcano is experiencing a gradual increase in activity that has not yet concluded, after a period of low activity between 2020 and 2022.
"We could have a high activity similar to that registered in the periods 2000-2003 and 2012-2016. It is a high activity because it produces more explosions and the formation of larger lava domes is more frequent. But we are currently below these levels," Campion told UNAM Global.
Although they can't make exact predictions about the duration of the phenomenon, Soler and other experts say it can extend from three weeks to a month. "However, the pattern is that it's on the rise right now. Then the activity can last much longer," Soler said.
The effects of ashes
On Sunday, the ash fall was maintained all day, affecting at least 20 municipalities of Puebla, so the decision was made to increase the perimeter of danger in the vicinity of the crater.
The governor of Puebla, Sergio Salomón Céspedes, asked citizens to avoid having food on public roads, and asked to restrict terraces in restaurants.
In a press conference, UNAM academics and government officials said that this incident is part of the activity that the volcano has presented since 1994 when it reactivated after having been asleep for 56 years.
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"The height of the columns carries the ashes to several places, so when we had ashes in Mexico City over the weekend the airport was closed, and then it returned to Puebla where particles that are fragments of this material from the volcano continue to fall," explained Ana Lillian Martin Del Pozzo, an academic at UNAM.
Del Pozzo, and other experts, have warned about the health consequences that ashes can have on nearby populations. "We have detected that they affect eyes and throat because they are very fine particles that are introduced into deeper parts of the respiratory system and can also cause us some irritation," he explained.
Epidemiologist José Castell Martínez warned that people who suffered serious complications from COVID-19 may be more affected by Popocatepetl's emissions. "They are already arriving at clinics and hospitals with shortness of breath, persistent cough and episodes of fatigue when walking or climbing stairs," he explained in an interview with the newspaper La Crónica.
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The expecialist also said that, in case the ashes come into contact with the eyes, artificial drops can be used and should not be scratched. "Volcanic dust erodes the conjunctiva; Those who wear contact lenses are better off to prefer frame lenses to avoid double involvement," he explained.
Monitor Popocatepetl
The 17,797-foot-tall volcano, known as El Popo, has been spewing toxic gases, ash and chunks of glowing rock persistently for nearly 30 years since it awoke from its slumber in 1994.
The volcano is located 45 miles (72 kilometers) southeast of Mexico City, but is much closer to the eastern periphery of the metropolitan area of 22 million people.
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The capital is also threatened by earthquakes and subsidence of the ground, but the volcano is the most visible and most guarded potential hazard. A severe eruption could cut off air traffic or choke the city with ash clouds.
"It's happened before. On two occasions we have gone to phase three and then the volcano calms down again. But it cannot be ruled out that it will get worse, it would be irresponsible. That is why people who are in the vicinity are asked to listen to official information," warns Soler.
Around the top of the crater are six cameras, a thermal imaging device and 12 seismological monitoring stations that operate 24 hours a day, all reporting to a command center in Mexico City.
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The 13 scientists of a multidisciplinary team take turns attending the center 24 hours a day: being able to warn of the imminence of an ash cloud is key to taking precautions. Unlike earthquakes, warning times can be longer in the case of the volcano and in general, the peak is more predictable.
Monitoring gases at nearby springs and at the summit — and wind patterns that help determine where ash might move — also play a role.
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According to experts, the internal forces are so great that they can temporarily deform the peak, so cameras and sensors must monitor the very shape of the volcano.
To explain all this to the 25 million people who live within a 60-mile (100-kilometer) radius of the volcano, authorities devised a "traffic light" with three colors: green for safety, yellow for alert and red for danger.
For most of the years since the traffic light was introduced, it has been in some phase of the color yellow.
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The mountain sometimes calms down, but not for long. It rarely ejects molten lava, but is rather of the explosive type, releasing hot rocks that fall down its flanks and emitting bursts of gas and ash as it happens at this time.
"For all that is that surveillance cannot be suspended and we are in continuous monitoring," explains Soler, "the reality is that since March the activity of the volcano has increased and the authorities cannot be neglected."
With information from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, Cenapred and The Associated Press