Kyiv reported progress in the Bakhmut region on Sunday. Has this marked the start of the much-heralded counteroffensive against Russia? Experts are puzzling.
Kyiv - Russia and Ukraine are currently engaged in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine. They revolve around the Bakhmut region, which is now largely controlled by Russia. On Sunday, Ukraine reported successes in the city for the first time in months. At the same time, Russian troops are concentrating on the defensive and trying to secure the more than 800-kilometer front - with anti-tank ditches, anti-tank barriers and trenches. Is the announced Ukrainian counteroffensive already underway? Or hasn't it even started yet?
Experts puzzle over planned Ukrainian counteroffensive: Has it already begun in Bakhmut?
Even military experts are no longer sure about Ukraine's planned counteroffensive. "Ukraine has been conducting localized counteroffensives in and around Bakhmut to push back the Russians and test defenses in the region," says Lucas Webber, co-founder of the website Militant Wire. Something similar is happening elsewhere on the front. "It is difficult to say whether the planned actual counteroffensive has begun, but these actions indicate that Ukraine is planning something much bigger."
Snipers of the Ukrainian army take up position against Russian troops near Bakhmut. © Libkos/AP
The extreme length of the front line in the Ukraine war makes it difficult to predict where Kyiv will attack. Bakhmut is strategically rather insignificant, but a counterattack there "would be embarrassing for the Kremlin and the Wagner group, which has almost taken the city," the researcher analyzes. Since the beginning of the war, the city has been ascribed a kind of symbolic character for the Ukrainians and their defense. With a large-scale attack, they could try to send a signal by recapturing Bakhmut and "frustrate" the Kremlin in Moscow.
Only on Monday, the Ukrainian army declared that it had captured "more than ten positions" of the Russians east of Bakhmut. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank also pointed to geolocated images on Monday, suggesting that Ukrainian forces have recently made limited progress in the city itself. For the Ukrainians, the gains would be the first foray in months. Moscow, on the other hand, claims for itself profits within the city, which Russian soldiers already largely control.
Counteroffensive in Ukraine war: Kyiv could isolate Russian soldiers in Bakhmut
"I would lean towards the interpretation that Ukraine is trying to detain Russian forces in Bakhmut in order to force them to stay at a certain point on the front," says Ivan Klyszcz of the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) think tank in Estonia. At the same time, Ukraine could attack elsewhere. "Panic has recently erupted in the Russian military channels because of alleged Ukrainian movement to positions in Russian-controlled areas," says Klyszcz. But these sources are "not always reliable".
A photo from Bakhmut on 24.04.2023. © IMAGO/RIA Novosti
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The conjecture about the goal of detaining the enemy in Bakhmut coincides with recent statements by the spokesman for the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces, Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty. According to ISW information, he reiterated that the main goal of the Ukrainian defensive operation in the Bakhmut region is to exhaust Russian forces in this area.
Experts are puzzled: Which regions are still suitable for the announced counteroffensive
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted in an interview with BBC on May 11 that the offensive against Russia has not yet started. According to him, the combat brigades, some of which have been trained by NATO countries, are "ready". However, the army would still lack "some things", including armored vehicles that would arrive "in batches". "With what we already have, we can move forward and, I believe, be successful," he told the US broadcaster. "But we would lose a lot of people. I think this is unacceptable. So we'll have to wait and see. We need a little more time.
At the same time, Ukraine is unlikely to reveal actual information about the planned counteroffensive. Since the beginning of the war, public communication has been used to confuse the enemy.
Pierre Razoux of the French research institute FMES sees signs that at least the preparation for a counteroffensive among Ukrainians and Russians is in full swing. "This is evidenced by the increasing acts of sabotage on Russian territory near the front line and the Russian attacks on Ukrainian weapons and ammunition depots," says Razoux. Where exactly Ukraine will attack remains in the dark. Some Western analysts expect advances in the south or an offensive on the occupied city of Severodonetsk in the east. Another possibility would be an attempt by Ukraine to recapture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the southeast. (NZ/AFP)