Last week, Ifop carried out a first poll of voting intentions for the European elections to be held in France on 9 June 2024. Published in the JDD, this survey granted, in the hypothesis of separate lists on the left, 25% to the National Rally, 19% to the presidential majority, 10% to each of the three main lists from the Nupes (LFI, EELV and PS), 8% to LR, 6% to Reconquest and 5% to the PC. In the event of a single list of the left, the RN and the Nupes would be tied (26%) ahead of the Macronist list (22%), that of LR (11%) and that of Reconquest (6%).
What significance should be given to a poll conducted one year before the election? It is often repeated: such a measure is only a snapshot at a specific moment, not presaging the evolution of the political context and campaign dynamics. Previous elections are also an invitation to political forces not to extrapolate the data from such a survey. Let's take a look at the three...
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