Black Sea resorts in Romania and Bulgaria are ready to welcome many visitors during the upcoming summer season. Last season was overshadowed by the war in Ukraine.
This war is ongoing, and a Ukrainian counteroffensive is imminent. But the threshold for anxieties about the expansion of the war is quite low among the population of Romania, which directly borders both Ukraine and Moldova, which could find itself at any given moment as the next victim of Russia's expansionist policy.
A survey conducted by the Center for a New Strategy, a Romanian think tank that studies foreign, defense and security policy, found a significant decline in Romanian fears of Russian military aggression against their country or a situation in which Romania could find itself involved in the war in Ukraine. On the other hand, Romanians are more concerned about rising electricity and gas prices, corruption in their country and their health. According to the survey, the results of which were presented at a conference held last weekend in Bucharest, a solid majority of Romanians (58%) sees an increased NATO presence in their country as a defensive guarantee against Russia. However, 33% of Romanians believe that NATO's presence and strengthening it in Romania could anger Moscow and provoke aggression.
Port of Constanta, last year. Central logistics junction, photo: Reuters
In the port of Constanta, Romania's main port, about 630 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, Ukrainian vessels are constantly unloading wheat and grain and loading goods, which they transport to Ukraine. Along with the "safe wheat route" from Ukraine to Turkey, Constanta has become a leading export hub for wheat and grains from Ukraine. Since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year, about a third of all Ukrainian wheat exports have passed through the port of Constanta.
Despina V ship carrying wheat from Ukraine, November last year,
The passage of wheat through Constanta is cheaper for Ukrainians, since the Romanian port saves them from the long inspection lines that exist at Turkish ports. To and from the port of Constanta, Ukrainian wheat and grain are transported by trucks, trains and vessels. In recent months, the Romanian railway company has resumed traffic on dozens of train lines linking to the port, as well as Ukraine and Moldova. The exit from the port to the Danube River allows the transfer of Ukrainian grain to EU countries.
This lively movement of Ukrainian wheat, cheaper than the wheat produced in Romania and other neighboring countries, has enraged local farmers. Solidarity with Ukraine, it turns out, has its limits. In early April, Poland banned the import of Ukrainian wheat into its territory. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia joined the demand to protect farmers in Eastern and Central Europe from Ukrainian competition. The European Union capitulated and pledged to pay the affected farmers €100 million in compensation.
Over the past year, the port of Constanta has become a strategic focus of activity in the war between Russia and Ukraine, including militarily. Romania and Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004. Turkey, which controls the southern Black Sea, has been a member of NATO since 1952. Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova – which is close to the Black Sea but lacks access to it – are seeking to join NATO.
The war in Ukraine is also a Russian move to increase Moscow's grip on the strategically important Black Sea. One of Russia's first acts of aggression at the outbreak of the Ukraine war was the announcement of a ban on navigation in the most extensive Ukrainian maritime territory. Already with Russia's takeover of Crimea in 2014, Romanians warned of the Russian threat to control of the Black Sea.
Nine years later, Romanians warn that the Black Sea is the "weak link" in NATO's defence against Russia. While the Western military alliance has significantly strengthened its presence in the northern part of the line of defense against Russia – the Baltic states, Finland and soon Sweden – the southern part of the line, in the Black Sea region, remains lacking proper military capabilities in the event of a Russian provocation or attack.
A scenario that keeps the Romanian authorities awake has to do with the large gas and oil reserves recently discovered in the Black Sea. According to an International Court of Justice decision, Romania won 2009% of the maritime area in its dispute with Ukraine in 80. It is in this territory that most of the gas and oil reserves are located. "If Russia succeeds in expanding its control over the Ukrainian coastline, it may declare the decision of the International Court unacceptable to it and annex the maritime territory transferred to Romania. What will happen then?" wonders a Romanian official. Romania's exploitation of offshore gas fields would give the country complete energy independence and reduce neighboring Moldova's dependence on Russian gas.
At the same time, there is real concern in the corridors of government in Bucharest about the consequences of the "hybrid war" that Russia is waging against all Black Sea countries, with the aim of undermining their democratic stability and developing among their populations fatigue from the war in Ukraine, which will make it easier for Russia to achieve its goals. 2024 will be an election year in Romania, as in other European countries, which Russia is expected to use to weaken pro-Ukraine administrations. In Romania, general, municipal, presidential and European parliamentary elections will be held.
"We are not yet dealing with 'war fatigue,'" estimates Luminita Udowescu, an adviser to the Romanian president. But the longer the war, the greater the risk of such fatigue. We are dealing with very massive Russian propaganda all over Europe. The Kremlin is working to increase social discontent in the face of economic difficulties, most of which we have so far been able to find solutions."
American soldiers play football at a base near Constanta. In the background: Chinook helicopter, photo: AFP
The port of Constanta is used by the Romanian navy, as well as NATO, as a main surveillance and warning base against Russian provocations. The same goes for the nearby air base, which has a more significant NATO presence. Romanian and Italian pilots there operate in a "policing" rather than "defense" format, meaning they cannot respond without confirmation to violations or aggressive activity by Russia.
NATO is very careful not to create incidents in this volatile area that could be used by the Russian side to expand the battlefield. In the face of the Russian threat, Romania has increased its defense budget to 2.5% of GNP, replaced its fleet with F-16s, purchased two French submarines, and plans to purchase 54 state-of-the-art American battle tanks. However, the Romanians have repeatedly called on NATO to increase its presence in the Black Sea and material military aid to Romania before it is too late.
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