The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be "close to normal," with between one and four Category 3 hurricanes or higher, according to the U.S. Weather Service forecast Thursday. It runs from the beginning of June to the end of November.
Despite these statistics, "it only takes one storm to devastate your community," warned Rick Spinrad, head of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which publishes these forecasts.
La Nina weather phenomenon
In total, it could develop between 12 and 17 storms (with winds of more than 62 km / h) to which will be assigned a name, according to NOAA. Between five and nine could become hurricanes (more than 119 km/h), including between one and four category 3 or more (from 178 km/h). For several years, the agency had been predicting higher-than-normal activity. The La Nina weather phenomenon - which develops in the equatorial Pacific Ocean but has consequences for the entire planet - had been present for three years.
But the US agency now predicts with near certainty that the opposite phenomenon, El Nino, should develop this summer. However, it tends to moderate hurricane activity in the Atlantic, says NOAA. However, this effect could be offset by favourable conditions locally, the US agency warned. In 2022, Hurricane Ian in particular devastated Florida, claiming dozens of lives and alone caused more than $100 billion in damage -- by far the world's costliest weather disaster last year.
See alsoWhy the American coasts will be hit more by hurricanes
In general, with global warming, hurricanes are becoming more powerful, fueled by the warmer ocean surface, according to scientists. "These storms are going to continue to develop faster, they're going to be more powerful, they're going to last longer," Deanne Criswell, head of the federal disaster response agency (Fema), said Thursday.
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There are three things everyone should do today," she said: assess the risks involved based on where they live, make sure they receive the right information (via alert systems, weather apps, etc.), and know what to do in an emergency. "Do you know where you'll go if you're asked to evacuate?" asked Criswell. "Now is the time to prepare.
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