Ukraine war: The Kremlin is now looking for a successor to Putin. © Mikhail Metzel/dpa
Putin's fate after the war seems sealed: a battle for a successor is already breaking out in the Kremlin. Few believe in a Russian victory.
Kyiv – Assassination, overthrow or coup attempt: Vladimir Putin's fate could take a tragic turn due to the Ukraine war. The Kremlin is already looking for successors for the Russian president in the background. Kremlin expert Roman Anin is quite certain: "The clan war for Putin's throne has begun". Because the Kremlin wants to lose as little time as possible. Even before Putin dies or loses his power, his confidants from the Kremlin could unite and rule.
Putin's fate sealed? Kremlin is starting to get restless
"Putin is over 70 years old; he is no longer a young man. This means that those around him understand that he will die or resign sooner rather than later. They realize that they have to work on different scenarios for the time after his death," said expert Anin in an interview with Radio Free Europe. However, he does not expect a fall.
Anin justifies the clan war, which has apparently begun, by saying that the Kremlin is slowly becoming restless – for fear of a Russian defeat in the Ukraine war. "They want to save their lives, their assets, the lives of their loved ones," Anin said. None of Putin's confidants believe in victory anymore. "They understand that this will be the starting point for this struggle for the throne. And the one who loses the battle will lose everything."
Putin's circle is too "divided" – inner unrest among Putin confidants
According to Anin, the Kremlin's decision on a successor could be strongly influenced by the quarrels among Putin's confidants. "The problem with his circle is that he is so divided that they have been constantly fighting each other for dozens of years, for access to him, for the possibility of influencing his decisions, for power."
Much also depends on the course of the war and what happens after the Ukrainian counteroffensive. "Things can change and develop very quickly, and I'm afraid that we are one step away from the beginning of the real chaos in Russia," Anin said. "Unless Putin decides to withdraw troops, close the country, declare a military dictatorship, arrest all his enemies and really turn the country into a North Korea."
Putin hopes for a miracle: losses and weaknesses of the Russian army put him in distress
But Anin doubts whether Putin will be able to do so. "I don't think he's ready to do that, and he's hoping for a miracle. He doesn't do anything. He's kind of stuck in his bunker." Especially since the Ukrainian successes, the Kremlin and Russian fighters are on alert. For example, Putin's chef Prigozhin warned of a revolution in Russia by "hundreds of thousands" if Putin did not get a grip on the rift among Russian soldiers and the high losses.
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Meanwhile, more and more Russian fighters are assuming major weaknesses in the military. "We can see that both the military leadership and the political institutions of the Russian Federation are not prepared for this situation," said Denis Kapustin, a commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps. "They've invested billions in strengthening their line, but when it comes to action, everything falls apart and nothing works."
If Putin is replaced, who could be his successor?
The question remains as to who could continue to govern in place of Putin. The notorious Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and Chechnya's President Ramzan Kadyrov would be considered, according to James W. Davis, head of the Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen. For Anin, this would be a horror scenario. "Imagine Prigozhin wins the battle and the country with the second largest nuclear arsenal is in the hands of a notorious criminal," Anin said. The West must be prepared for such a change of power. (bohy)
