Dmitry Medvedev predicts the end of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin's confidant outlines three scenarios. Only one of them would be good enough for Russia.
Moscow – The end of Ukraine will come. Sooner or later. Dmitry Medvedev is convinced of this. At least the end of Ukraine as an independent state. Vladimir Putin's follower, who has become increasingly radical since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, has often denied the neighbouring country's right to exist. Now Medvedev explains via Telegram how he envisions the future of Europe after the end of the fighting.
For him, Ukraine is a "dying state" that is threatened with a protracted or a quick end. Here, on the one hand, Medvedev speaks of the "path of relatively slow erosion of Ukrainian statehood with a gradual loss of the remaining elements of state sovereignty", the alternative is "the path of immediate collapse with the simultaneous destruction of all signs of statehood."
Medvedev agitates against Ukraine via Telegram: Poisoned offer to the West
Needless to say, the 57-year-old also wants to show the West, Ukraine's most important ally, that its help would only prolong the suffering in the war zones. So nothing will change the outcome of the Ukraine conflict. On top of that, Medvedev's message includes the obligatory warning that a new conflict could be provoked in Europe or the world. And that could take decades.
In addition, he reaches out to the states of the EU over the heads of the Ukrainian leadership, so to speak. With the poisoned offer to decide the fate of the war-torn country. The deputy head of the Security Council of Russia, who is considered one of the closest allies of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, cites three scenarios.
Each of them is about the western territories joining some EU states, while the regions in the east henceforth belong to Russia. Ukraine will thus be divided, ultimately disappearing from the map, as the former president of Putin's grace and later prime minister has imagined several times.
Wants to divide Ukraine: Russia's ex-president Dmitry Medvedev makes the EU a poisoned offer via Telegram. © IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
Medvedev's scenarios for Ukraine: In two out of three cases, a world war is imminent
Scenario one involves a strip of "no man's land" – as Medvedev calls it – between these new EU territories and Russian territory expanded to the west. These "remaining ownerless territories" would declare themselves the successors of Ukraine, reclaim the territories from Russia and want to be admitted to the EU and NATO, "which is also happening in the medium term". Subsequently, according to Medvedev, the armed conflict would flare up again, there would be a threat of the transition to World War III.
In the second scenario, the risk of a resumption of the conflict or an escalation up to a world war is "moderate". Here, some EU states and Russia divide the entire Ukrainian territory among themselves. A Ukrainian government-in-exile is emerging in a European country, and appropriate guarantees are being agreed to settle the conflict. However, there are "continued terrorist activities by Ukrainian Nazis, which are scattered across the EU states that have received western Ukrainian land."
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Finally, there is the third scenario, Medvedev's favorite. As in scenario one, "ownerless regions" remain between the territories taken over by some EU states and Russia. Only the population living there demands "self-determination by joining the Russian Federation." This request would be granted, and the conflict could be resolved "with sufficient guarantees that it will not flare up again in the long term".
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Medvedev does not see any further options, adding: "And that is clear to everyone, even if some in the West don't want to admit it." Although the second scenario could be seen as a "temporary" solution, in the long run this only applies to scenario three.
Does Medvedev really hope to get the West to the negotiating table like this? By simply ignoring Ukraine? Many European leaders have repeatedly stressed that Ukraine alone decides when it is ready to start talks on the future of the war zones.
Perhaps Medvedev is hoping to sow discord. Because the EU no longer seems to be as united as it was at the beginning of the invasion. The increasing war-weariness among citizens in the West could also become a weapon for him.
In action for Vladimir Putin: Thousands of Russian tanks have been bombing areas in Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion. © IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
Medvedev sees no future with Zelensky: "Neo-Nazi rule must be eliminated"
In any case, Medvedev repeated his warning of a protracted and grueling war to reporters during a visit to Vietnam. "This conflict will last a long time, maybe decades. This is the new reality, new living conditions," he was quoted as saying by the Russian news agency TASS.
Just as Kiev considers peace with Putin to be utopian, Medvedev sees little chance of an end to the conflict if the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains in power. "Then we would have, let's say, three years of ceasefire, then two years of conflict, and then everything starts all over again."
For him, it is quite clear: "The essence of neo-Nazi rule in Kiev must be eliminated." So he does not budge from this view – despite all the setbacks since the outbreak of the war, the course of which Medvedev and Putin have imagined quite differently. (mg)