A joint list of the left-wing alliance Nupes would come out ahead of the National Rally and Emmanuel Macron's majority, but the total of left-wing lists would be greater in the case of separate lists, according to a Cluster17 poll for Le Point.
The left-wing parties united under the banner of the Nupes in the legislative elections of June 2022 are divided on the opportunity of a common list for this first intermediate election of the second five-year term Macron, scheduled from 6 to 9 June 2024. The rebellious France of Jean-Luc Mélenchon is in favor of it, but Europe Ecologie-The Greens, in particular, has several times indicated its opposition.
According to this poll published on Saturday, a joint Nupes list agglomerating LFI, EELV, the PCF and the PS would come out ahead with 27% of the vote, ahead of the National Rally (25.5%) and the presidential majority (23%). Far behind, Les Républicains (8.5%), Reconquest of Eric Zemmour (7%), Debout la France (DLF) of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (4%) and a joint list Lutte ouvrière (LO) - New Anti-capitalist Party (NPA), at 2%.
The RN in the lead in the hypothesis of separate left lists
In the hypothesis of separate left lists, it is the RN (24%) which would come out ahead, ahead of the presidential majority which would then achieve a lower score (19.5%). But the sum of the scores of the left, LFI (11%), EELV (11%), the PS (9%) and the PCF (4%), i.e. 35%, would be higher than that recorded in the hypothesis of a common list.
In this scenario of separate left lists, Les Républicains would win 7.5% of the vote, ahead of Reconquête (6.5%), DLF (3%) and a LO-NPA list (2%).
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Survey conducted by online self-administered questionnaire from May 17 to 19 with a sample of 1760 people registered on the electoral lists (quota method). Margin of error of 1.7 to 2 points for results between 20% and 30%.