Henry Kissinger turns 100 this Saturday. Age has the symbolic burden of an outstanding crew member of the last century, especially. Near this anniversary, the former chancellor who has just published Leadership, prepares two other texts, one on Artificial Intelligence. Apart from the reasonable polemics that flood its long history, its thinking, still very sharp, matters. Here is part of the reflections he shared in various reports, including the most recent with The Economist.
"We live in a world of unprecedented destruction. It has never been possible to destroy all your opponents, due to geographical and accuracy limitations. There are no longer any limitations. Every adversary is 100% vulnerable."
On the tension with China, he affirms that the world "is in the classic situation before the First World War where neither side has much room for political concession and in which any disturbance of the balance can have catastrophic consequences."
He maintains that there is not much time for such conciliation. The advance of Artificial Intelligence (AI), because of the changes it will produce, leaves only 5 to 10 years to find a way "In the US they say that China wants to dominate the world. The answer is that they (China) want to be powerful. They are not aimed at world domination in a Hitlerian sense. That's not how they think about the world order."
"If they achieved a superiority that can actually be used, would they bring it to the point of imposing Chinese culture? I do not know. My instinct is Not... [But] I think it's in our ability to prevent that situation from arising through a combination of diplomacy and force."
"China is trying to play a global role. We have to evaluate whether conceptions of a strategic role are compatible. If they are not, the question of force will arise. Is it possible for China and the US to coexist without the threat of all-out war between them? It may fail. Therefore, we have to be strong enough militarily to withstand failure."
"The way things have evolved, it is now not easy for the U.S. to leave Taiwan without undermining its position elsewhere."
Meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev AFP
The advice is to reduce tension and build trust. Imagine a talk by a U.S. president with the Chinese colleague: "Mr. President, the two greatest dangers to peace right now are the two of us. In the sense that we have the capacity to destroy humanity."
Seeking the collapse of the Chinese regime "would lead to civil war. In any stability diplomacy, there has to be some element of the nineteenth-century world that was based on the proposition that the existence of the disputing states was not in dispute."
Putin's catastrophic mistake
About the war. "It was certainly a catastrophic error of judgment by Putin." But also "the decision to leave open Ukraine's membership in NATO was very wrong."
He believes that Russia should hand over as many of the territories it conquered even in 2014 but in any ceasefire Russia is likely to keep Sevastopol (its largest naval base in Crimea).
* Recommends two steps to lasting peace. Ukraine must join NATO in order to restrict and protect it. And the West must move closer to Russia to create a stable eastern border.
Chinese President Xi Jinping with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in Beijing, China
China has a primary interest in Russia's emergence of the war intact. A collapse in Moscow would worry China because it would create a power vacuum in Central Asia that risks being filled by a "Syrian-type civil war."
Kissinger celebrates Chinese leader Xi Jinping's call for Ukrainian Volodomir Zelensky. He sees it as progress. But he warns that Beijing's mediation is tinged by a distrust of each other. "I've never met a Russian leader who said anything good about China. Or a Chinese leader who has said something good about Russia." They are not natural allies.
Current leaders
U.S. and China should discuss A.I. "We are at the beginning of a capability in which machines could impose a global pestilence, not only nuclear but any field of human destruction."
He warns that A.I. will be a key factor in safety in five years. And he compares its disruptive potential to the invention of the printing press.
"We have to initiate exchanges about the impact of technology between us. We have to take small steps towards arms control, where each side presents the other with controllable material."
Doubt of the current leaderships. "I don't think Biden can provide inspiration and I hope Republicans find someone better than Trump. It's not a great moment in history."
The great challenge of the US is "to achieve long-term strategic thinking. If we don't, predictions of failure will be true."
"World leaders have a great responsibility. They require realism to deal with dangers, vision to see that the solution lies in achieving balance between the forces of their countries and restraint to refrain from using their offensive powers to the maximum. It's an unprecedented challenge but also a great opportunity."
MC.
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