United States: Trump or DeSantis, how the Republican Party will choose its presidential candidate

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, appetites are already sharpening within the Republican Party to establish itself as the opponent of Democrat Joe Biden. His predecessor Donald Trump, who still considers the 2020 election as "rigged", intends to take revenge. But the former president's road to the election will be fraught with pitfalls. Like Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who declared his candidacy in the primary on Wednesday, May 24, voices are rising within the party to turn the page on the Trump era. Le Figaro summarizes the stakes of this long-distance race for the nomination.

Two candidates favourites in the polls

There's Donald Trump, of course. The former president dreams of replaying the match against Joe Biden, who has announced that he will run again. Embroiled in legal cases, weakened by mid-term elections less victorious than hoped for the party, he declared his candidacy last November. Despite the indictments - which he does not hesitate to exploit - he is still the favorite in the polls, with 53% of the vote in the primary in the last conducted by CNN on May 24.

His biggest competitor broke the (false) suspense on May 24 by declaring his candidacy live on Twitter. Long described as the party's "rising star," DeSantis was re-elected governor of Florida in 2022 with a 19-point lead over his Democratic rival. He leads a very conservative policy, not hesitating to go to war against the giant Disney, major employer of the State, for having publicly denounced a bill restricting the teaching of subjects related to sexual orientation in schools. However, his approval ratings eroded in the weeks leading up to his entry into the campaign, with DeSantis falling behind Trump in the polls (26% in the same CNN study).

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If the battle should look more like a duel between the two personalities, five other candidates are also declared: former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, radio political host Larry Elder, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson. Others, like former Vice President Mike Pense or Chris Christie, who served as governor of New Jersey, could join the nomination race.

Trump already wants to dry the debates

The Republican Party must inaugurate its presidential candidate at its national convention held from July 15 to 18, 2024 in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), less than four months before the election scheduled for November 5. For this, each state will hold its primary starting in February 2024, with most traditionally taking place in March. If a name stands out along the way, the Republican candidate could be known as early as March, well before the congress officially endorsing his nomination.

But the designation process could be disrupted. Several debates are planned, the first in August in Milwaukee, before a second in California, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, for which no date has yet been set. And Donald Trump is already threatening to evade his obligations, leaving doubt about his participation in the debates. On his social network Truth social, he wonders why he should go debate with others when he "leads with a lead that seems impossible to catch".

In 2016, he had already dried a debate with the other candidates for the nomination of the Republican Party, and had welcomed it, believing to have obtained "more publicity" than if he had gone there by making "the front page of all the newspapers". In 2020, when Donald Trump was running for re-election after his first term, no debate was held.