Without a doubt, the general elections held on 14 May will always be remembered as the Day of Atonement for pollsters in Turkey. Contrary to all predictions, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroğlu, who is also supported by the Kurds from outside, failed to secure a majority in parliament and finished the presidential race in second place, with 2.5 million fewer votes than incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan and Owen, last week, photo: AP
Alongside Kilicdaroğlu's failure, the impressive success of the third candidate, nationalist Sinan Owen, created a real political drama. Contrary to all predictions, Owen, supported by the relatively small nationalist parties led by Umit Ozda, managed to get 2.8 million (5.17%) votes. On the face of it, these surprising results made Owen and his ally Ozda the decisive factors in the second round.
Kilicdaroğlu and Uzda. The opposition candidate is also pleased, Photo: AP
The question remains: How did Owen and his right-hand man Ozda manage to win both public attention and support that cannot be ignored? The answer is quite simple. Unlike Erdogan, who emphasized Islamic brotherhood with Syrians, and Kilicdaroğlu, who was busy pleasing the Turkish left and the Kurds, Owen and Ozda put the refugee issue at the top of their agenda. According to the official figures of the Turkish Refugee Institute, there are currently about 3.6 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey. Right-wing forums claim that the real number has already crossed 5 million.
The side effects of immigration are felt in Turkish society: a large number of unskilled Turkish workers have lost their jobs, housing prices have soared, and cultural differences have created tensions between refugees and their hosts. As a result, for the first time in Turkey's political history, the term "xenophobia" began to play a significant role in the election campaign. As a result, their very rigid stance on immigrants transformed Owen and Odza from fringe actors to main actors.
A few days ago, a great drama took place. Owen, who is known for his anti-Kurdish views, chose to join the people's alliance led by Erdogan. Being Azeri, and given the close cooperation between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Erdogan (especially evident in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020), Owen saw a better future next to Erdogan. The connection bore fruit immediately: Defense Minister Hulusi Akar began giving media interviews about strengthening border crossings, and Erdogan himself declared that half a million Syrians had already been extradited to Syria. Within a short time, Owen was able to dictate his nationalist agenda to Erdogan.
But when everyone thought that the anti-immigrant camp would fully support Erdoğan, another drama ensued: Ozda declared his support for Kilicdaroğlu. Here, too, immediately after the announcement of accession, and to the astonishment of his leftist and Kurdish voters, Kilicdaroglu radically changed his political rhetoric and began chanting anti-refugee slogans as Ozda wanted.
In other words, the Turkish nationalists did not put all their eggs in the same basket, but in a brilliant strategic move dictated their agenda to the two leading candidates. In doing so, they became the big winners of the race. They will accept every result with satisfaction, because they have succeeded in appeasing the future government. On the other hand, the left, the Kurds and the Syrian refugees are the biggest losers, even before the votes are counted.
Dr. Hai Eitan Cohen Yanarocak is an expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan MDC Center at Tel Aviv University and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
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