The State of Mexico is only a symbol, what happens on June 4 will not affect the presidential elections of 2024

Alejandra del Moral and Delfina Gómez, candidates for governor of the State of Mexico.

By dint of repeating that the State of Mexico is a symbol for the country's politics, the entity runs the risk of being nothing more than that, a symbol. Nothing that happens in the June 4 elections seems to have real force in the rest of the Republic. If Morena wins, as the polls seem to indicate, then it will be one more State that bets on change. If the PRI wins, it is very likely that 2024, with all its electoral burden, will follow the course that experts also predict, a broad Morenoite hegemony. Analysts demystify the political influence of the State of Mexico in the rest of the country. "What happens in these elections will no longer be the dress rehearsal for anything, that has not been the case for a long time," says María Eugenia Valdés Vega, a professor of political science at the Autonomous Metropolitan University (UAM) in Iztapalapa. "Of course, if the PRI won, 2024 would be very interesting, but I doubt it."

Everyone doubts it. The polls are being tenacious, the majority give the Morenoist candidate Delfina Gómez many points above her adversary, Alejandra del Moral, although everyone is aware of the local power, of the networks that still support the tricolor party, more in that territory, where it can almost be said that another never governed. We should resort to history books rather than memory. Francisco Abundis, an analyst at Parametria, says that the PRI will only save face if it manages to reduce its opponent's lead by less than 10 points, but the polls "in housing, the serious ones," place the gap between the candidates at much more than that. "The closest one gives them 14 points of difference, all the others are well above that," he says. Del Moral is "a competitive candidate," says Abundis, "but she carries a very heavy slab. He's had a good campaign." The analyst believes that he sees the future, does not know where or with whom, but that it will be a name to be taken into account in Mexican politics.

The enormous crisis that the national and local PRI has been dragging for some time could become a trend from which it cannot recover. "It runs the risk of remaining as a hinge party, like the Greens or the PT, it is already an uncomfortable partner," says Abundis. In any case, win or lose, he also believes that what happens in the State of Mexico has little to do with the presidential future, that is "a myth that no longer finds the correlation it could have had in other times." In his opinion, winning the state would grant "a sense of power, of electoral relevance, rather than of power itself." What is relevant, he argues, will only be the quantitative difference between the two parties. "If it is broad, it will generate that feeling that Morena is unstoppable." If it is small, the opposition may have some oxygen to inflate the ball. And there will always be Coahuila so as not to give the ship for sunk. and Durango.

The feeling is that the cards are drawn in these elections and in the following ones, always bearing in mind that politics is not mathematical and the lesson of 2021, when Morena suffered a good setback in Congress and some very significant positions were lost in Mexico City, for example. "The PRI didn't do so badly, it was on an equal footing with the PAN," says Abundis.

So the result obtained in these elections will have more quantitative than qualitative importance before the horizon of 2024. "The loss for the PRI is already old, there have already been governments of other signs and also in the State of Mexico there are municipalities in the name of other parties. The State of Mexico is a mosaic," explains Laura Valencia, research professor in the Department of Politics and Culture at UAM Xochimilco. "It has been losing hegemony for a long time. Losing the governorship would be something strong, yes, and very symbolic," he says, but it takes away iron. Nor does the researcher see that Morena has the hegemony that is presumed, for the same reason, many municipalities that it does not govern and its loss in Congress. "There's a lot of juxtaposition," he says.

Professor Valdés Vega also points out the heterogeneity of the State of Mexico. The crown that surrounds Mexico City is different from the rest of the State and also that area is different in the east and in the west. In his opinion, it is the local power groups that make the difference. He appreciates that for the first time there is electoral competition and recognizes the importance of this election, but it is no longer "the final exam" as it was understood long ago. That rule was broken decades ago, if there was one, what Enrique Peña Nieto was nothing more than a parenthesis, a coincidence. So, even if the PRI won the state, which everyone doubts, nothing would be written by 2024. "Now, if they lose, it will be very frustrating for the PRI members of the old regime." It will be a moral defeat, perhaps, a symbol.

Regarding that uncomfortable partner of which Abundis spoke, the alliance that the PRI forms with the PAN and the PRD, would not leave him in a worse moment than the one he is experiencing. "The PAN is already dominant, it had nothing left but to leave the candidacy because they, the PRI, have the local strength, the network, although they will all be weakened, of course," says Valdés Vega. And like the others, he does not consider the tricolor dead either: "It has a lot of people, the PAN does not." He repeats the words of his fellow analysts. Is the State of Mexico important in elections? "Yes, it's a lot of votes, it's strong electorally, coveted by everyone." But it would be a "moral" victory. The opposition could rearm, but it won't be useful for much beyond.

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