The idea that the Frente de Todos can be left out of the second round, from the irruption of Javier Milei, begins to materialize in the polls and generates alarm in the Government. A new study to which Clarín accessed this Monday pays the hypothesis, when Cristina Kirchner is not in the offer of the ruling party.
The survey is from Synopsis, a consultancy created in 2015 and which functions as the political leg of another firm, Ecolatina, linked to the economy and founded by former minister Roberto Lavagna. Among other clients, Synopsis now brings its studies to the Government of the City of Buenos Aires.
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Between May 6 and 13, the consulting firm led by political scientist Lucas Romero surveyed 1,631 cases, with a 2.3% margin of error. Almost the entire sample was conducted from face-to-face interviews.
As this newspaper already said, it is a request that the head of Government Horacio Rodríguez Larreta has been making to the pollsters he hires: he presumes that in the face to face he does better than in telephone or online studies, where he would respond a public more akin to the crack and to harder references such as Cristina, Patricia Bullrich or Milei.
Voting by space
The Synopsis survey starts with general questions, and is getting more and more into the fight for the PASO of August 13. It starts with this question: "If today were the presidential elections, would you vote for the ruling party or for the opposition?"
There, there is a relatively stable floor of the Frente de Todos, around 27 points (27.4% in April and 27.5% in May), with an opposition that as a whole reaches 55.6%. It completes 16.9% of undecided.
Then, the survey goes a step further and makes a similar proposal for the presidential elections but offering different spaces/stamps. There, without the polarization of 2019, Together for Change and the Frente de Todos are cut up: 26.2% and 24.9%.
One step down come libertarians, close but not so much, with 17.1%. And they appear with interesting 10.1% the option of Peronism not K. It is presumed that this stamp captures, for the most part, disenchanted officialists. The parties of the left close with 4.6%, others with 4.3% and the Ns/Nc with 12.2%.
PASO Scenarios
Later, the survey gets into two PASO scenarios. One with more candidates and another limited. But in addition to quantity, the issue is "quality": Cristina Kirchner is included in the first and the second is not. And there you can see how the departure of the vice president from the electoral offer K impacts.
In hypothesis 1, with the former president, the Frente de Todos ends up being the most voted space. Cristina adds 18.8%, to which are added 7.1% of Sergio Massa, 3.6% of Daniel Scioli and 0.9% of Wado de Pedro. Total ruling party 30.4%.
Then there is Together for Change, with 28.2%, and with Larreta and Bullrich in a technical tie: 11.5% the head of government and 10.7% the former minister. They complete, distant, Facundo Manes with 2.5%, Gerardo Morales with 2.4% and José Luis Espert with 1.1%.
More relegated finish Juan Schiaretti, for the PJ not K, with 4.2%; and Myriam Bregman, as a variant of the Left Front, with 2.3%. Others add 3.6% and the undecided, 6.8%.
Hypothesis 2 for the primaries is perhaps the one that sounds most likely today. Without Cristina in the ruling party and without radical candidates in Juntos. There, the main opposition alliance goes to the front in the sum, with Larreta a little above Bullrich: 14% to 12.2% (total 26.2%).
Stuck comes Milei, alone, with 25.2%; and third are the two representatives of the Frente de Todos: Massa with 14.3% and Scioli with 10.3% reach 24.6%.
Statistically it is a triple tie: that is, as if any of the representatives of the three main spaces could enter or stay out of a very likely second round.
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