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New York slowly sinks into the Hudson River

2023-05-29T20:01:34.824Z

Highlights: New research estimates that the city's land mass is sinking at an average rate of 1 to 2 millimeters per year. It will be hundreds of years before New York becomes the American version of Venice, which plunges into the Adriatic. New Yorkers like Tracy Miles may be skeptical at first. "I think it's a made-up story," Miles said. "We have an excessive amount of skyscrapers, apartment buildings, offices," San Francisco company and commercial spaces isn't the only place sinking.


To the problem of rising seas is added the weight of skyscrapers, apartments, asphalt and humanity itself.


As if rising sea levels weren't enough of a concern, added to it are the risks facing New York City: the metropolis is slowly sinking under the weight of its skyscrapers, homes, asphalt, and humanity itself.

New research estimates that the city's land mass is sinking at an average rate of 1 to 2 millimeters per year, something known as "subsidence."

This natural process occurs everywhere as the ground is compressed, but the study published this month in the journal Earth's Future sought to calculate how the enormous weight of the city itself accelerates the process.

One million buildings

There are more than one million buildings spread across the city's five neighborhoods. The research team calculated that all those structures add up to about 1.7 trillion tons of concrete, metal and glass — roughly the weight of 4,700 Empire State Buildings — pressing on Earth.

The pace of compression varies by city. Midtown Manhattan's skyscrapers are built largely on rock, which compresses very little, while parts of Brooklyn, Queens and midtown Manhattan are on looser ground and sink more quickly, the study reveals.

Although the process is slow, lead researcher Tom Parsons of the U.S. Geological Survey said some areas of the city will end up underwater.

A person looks at the city from the East River. Photo: AP

The soil goes down, the water goes up

"It's inevitable. The ground is going down and the water is rising. At some point, those two levels will meet," said Parsons, whose job is to forecast dangerous events, from earthquakes and tsunamis to gradual displacements of the ground beneath our feet.

But Parsons said there's no need to invest in lifeguards yet.

The study merely points out that the buildings themselves are contributing, albeit gradually, to the modification of the landscape. Parsons and his team of researchers reached these conclusions using satellite imagery, data modeling, and numerous mathematical hypotheses.

It will be hundreds of years – the exact date is unclear – before New York becomes the American version of Venice, which plunges into the Adriatic.

Wave in Battery Park. Photo: AP

But there are parts of the city that are more at risk.

"There's a lot of weight there, a lot of people," Parsons said, referring specifically to Manhattan. "The average elevation in the southern part of the island is only 1 or 2 meters above sea level: it is very close to water level, so it raises deep concern."

Since the ocean rises at a rate similar to the sinking of the land, Earth's climate change could accelerate the times for areas of the city to disappear underwater.

The Brooklyn Bridge full of people, at sunset. Photo: AP

"It doesn't mean we should stop building buildings. It does not mean that buildings are the only cause of this. There are a lot of factors," Parsons said. "The purpose was to highlight this in advance, before it becomes a bigger problem."

New York City is already at risk of flooding due to major storms that can cause the sea to penetrate inland or flood neighborhoods with torrential rains.

The resulting flooding can have destructive and deadly consequences, as Superstorm Sandy demonstrated a decade ago and the still-potent remnants of Hurricane Ida two years ago.

"From a scientific standpoint, this is an important study," said Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a principal investigator at Columbia University's Climate School, who was not involved in the research.

Their findings could help policymakers come up with plans to combat, or at least prevent, rising tides.

"We cannot sit back and wait for a critical threshold of sea level rise to be reached," he said, "because waiting could mean missing out on preventive and readiness measures."

The unmistakable skyscrapers of Manhattan. Photo: Leonardo Munoz / AFP

New Yorkers like Tracy Miles may be skeptical at first.

"I think it's a made-up story," Miles said. He pondered again as he watched the sailboats swaying in the water off midtown Manhattan. "We have an excessive amount of skyscrapers, apartment buildings, company offices and commercial spaces."

New York isn't the only place sinking. San Francisco also puts considerable pressure on the region's soil and active seismic faults.

In Indonesia, the government is preparing a possible withdrawal from Jakarta, which is sinking into the Java Sea, to build a new capital on the higher ground of another island.

Bobby Caina Calvan is a journalist for the Associated Press

Translation: Elisa Carnelli

ap

See also

A hurricane or rising seas could "swallow" Miami

The planet "sinks" in plastic: 175 countries meet in Paris to reach a solution

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2023-05-29

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