Polls for the 2023 Turkish election: Who is ahead - and who is not

In Turkey, the race for the presidency goes into the run-off. Here you will find the most important surveys.

Berlin – Turkey's focus in 2023 will be on the presidential and parliamentary elections, which will take place in May. In May, more than 64 million Turks are called upon to cast their vote in the 2023 Turkish elections and thus decide on the political future of their country.

Especially for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been in power for 20 years, the election in Turkey was a test. On May 14, he won 49.51 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, while his challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu received 44.88 percent. The first run-off election in Turkey's history will now take place on 28 May.

Supporters of Turkish President Erdogan cheer at the party's headquarters in Ankara, Turkey. © Ali Unal/dpa

2023 Turkish election: Polls ahead of Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu runoff

Polls ahead of the run-off election on May 28 again point to a close race, but Erdoğan seems to be ahead. The current figures:

Turkey election 2023: Polls are off the mark – Erdoğan with best result

For the first time in his term in office, Erdoğan did not go into the election as the clear favorite. Perhaps that was also the reason why Erdoğan spoke of a "fateful choice". The country is struggling with massive inflation and high unemployment. In addition, after the severe earthquakes in February, the opposition did not spare criticism of the government's crisis management. Polls ahead of the presidential election suggested that opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu could win the election. According to PolitPro, Erdoğan lagged behind on average across all polls.

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Polls ahead of Turkey's elections: Things are getting tight for Erdoğan

In the elections in Turkey, incumbent President Erdoğan ran with his Islamic-conservative AKP party in an electoral alliance called the "People's Alliance". This alliance is made up of various parties, including the ultra-nationalist MHP, the nationalist-religious BBP and the Islamist YRP. On the other side of the political landscape, an alliance called the "Table of Six" has formed, consisting of several opposition parties, including the largest opposition party CHP, the national-conservative Iyi Party, and DEVA, GP, DP and SP.

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP) is running against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2023 Turkish election. (Symbolic image) © IMAGO / ZUMA Wire

For a short time, the opposition alliance threatened to break up over the question of the presidential candidate. In the end, however, it was clear that opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu would run against Erdoğan. The pro-Kurdish opposition party HDP decided not to run its own candidate and instead supports the opposition alliance.

Turkey's election: the alliances

• "People's Alliance": Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP), Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi (MHP), Büyük Birlik Partisi (BBP), Yeniden Refah Partisi (YRP)
• "Table of Six": Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (CHP), İyi Parti (İyi), Demokrasi ve Atılım Partisi (Deva), Gelecek Partisi (GP), Demokrat Parti (DP), Saadet Partisi (SP)

Turkey election: Current polls on the presidential election

Here again the poll results for Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu, without taking into account the other candidates running for the highest office in Turkey. If neither Erdoğan nor Kılıçdaroğlu achieve an absolute majority, both will go to a run-off election. The results are given as a percentage. Note: Ten days before the election (4 May), a ban on opinion polls comes into force.

Turkish elections: Current polls for the parliamentary elections

The polls for the upcoming parliamentary elections in Turkey show a rather mixed picture. In some polls, the "Table of Six" alliance is ahead of the "People's Alliance", while in others it is exactly the opposite. However, none of the alliances achieved an absolute majority. Thus, the pro-Kurdish opposition party HDP could be decisive and tip the scales. The results of the surveys are given as a percentage.

Do you think Erdoğan will be re-elected president?

2018 Turkish elections: AKP loses majority in parliament

In the parliamentary elections in 2018, the ruling AKP lost its majority, but was able to compensate for this with the seats of the MHP. The largest opposition party, the CHP, also suffered a decline in votes. However, the previously newly founded IYI party and the pro-Kurdish HDP also entered parliament. In the presidential election, incumbent Erdoğan prevailed in the first round with 52.6 percent of the vote. (cs)

This article, written by the editors, used machine support. The article has been carefully reviewed by editor Bona Hyun before publication.