The idea that the irruption of Javier Milei could only bring electoral upheaval to Together for Change was diluted sooner rather than later, especially from polls that showed how the growth of the libertarian leader also hit (and strong) in the Frente de Todos. A new poll accessed by Clarín analyzes the phenomenon in detail, pondering where the votes come from for the economist of the weird hairstyle. And the results of the study bring more than one surprise.
The survey is from Taquion, a consultancy that has been working for years on both sides of the rift and is already inserted in the world of politics. Between May 8 and 13, it interviewed 2,669 people nationwide, and presented the results of the work with a margin of error of +/- 1.9%.
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In the chapter on voting intentions, he presents two tables: one with the numbers by space, where the libertarians appear second, leaving out of a hypothetical runoff the Frente de Todos; and another with the analysis of the "mobility" of the vote, between 2019 and the 2023 projections, where it is seen how the economist "eats" all forces, including the left.
Before entering the electoral field, leave some interesting data/conclusions:
- Despite the discontent and critical social humor, 4 out of 10 respondents say that "the presidential election is the event that generates the most expectation this year."
- Also 4 out of 10 say they expect "a firm President who makes decisions."
And in a number that charts people's discontent with their political class, 47% say they would not leave their children in the care of "none" of the top leaders.
Fight of three and the escapes since 2019
As for the fight for space, the end of polarization is confirmed and a sort of ladder of three is established, with Together for Change first, the libertarians second and the ruling party in an uncomfortable third place. With these numbers: 33%, 26.3% and 23.7% respectively.
Below, further away complete: Peronism not K 4%, Left Front 2.2%, White 3.3%, Null 3.4% and I would not vote 4.2%.
The file of the study allows to discriminate the data by sex, age and region of residence.
- Among men, Milei grows to almost 30 points. Among women, Together rises and the libertarians and the Frente de Todos fall.
- Among the youngest, Milei sweeps, exceeding 50 points. Among the oldest, it drops to about 12 points and rises steeply together, to more than 45.
- And as for the regions, it is striking how Milei increases its average in Cuyo and the Norte Grande.
But perhaps the most interesting chart is the one comparing who respondents voted for president in 2019 and who they plan to vote for now. There he sees how support for Milei, far from being a massive flight from Together for Change, seems more like a transversal phenomenon.
Of the support of four years ago, JxC retains 67.3% and loses 26.6% to Milei. The Frente de Todos maintains a similar percentage of 65.7% and of the rest 11.9% goes to the libertarians.
Of the other presidential candidates, predictably almost everything that was José Luis Espert (the libertarian option of 2019) would vote for Milei. But the striking thing is that 15.8% who voted for Nicolás del Caño, of the Left Front, would also go with the leader of La Libertad Avanza.
This would confirm that what Milei captures is the general discontent of the population. This explains that about 40% of those who voted blank, annulled their vote or did not go through the dark room now also view the libertarian proposal with sympathy.
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