A few years ago, while traveling to the interior, Ecuadorian Jaime Durán Barba explained to a group of journalists two basic elements that a presidential candidate must have. "A knowledge greater than 90% throughout the country and a rejection less than 50%," said the star advisor of the PRO. A new electoral survey, facing the 2023 presidential elections, brings the debate back to the surface. With terrible news for the Frente de Todos: less than three months before the PASO, the "I would never vote" for this ruling party continues to grow.
The data comes in the latest national survey released by Opinaia. It is a pioneering consultancy in online measurements, already installed in the world of politics, and whose client -among others- the City Government.
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Argentina chooses 2023
Between May 14 and 22, the firm surveyed 2,000 cases and presented the results with +/- 2.2% margin of error. Throughout the report, of 30 pages, there are numbers that show how complicated the outlook is for the Government and how Javier Milei is on the rise.
As this newspaper said in previous articles, the "I would never vote for him" is a key fact thinking about a runoff: it is presumed that a candidate with rejection greater than 50% could never win a second round, unless he competes against another candidate who also comes with this electoral Achilles heel.
Floors and ceilings by spaces
An interesting measurement that Opinaia has been doing for months is to evaluate the electoral floors and ceilings, not of the candidates but of the spaces. And that is where the deterioration of the "Frente de Todos" brand is clearly seen. Therefore, as Clarín also advanced, it is being evaluated to change the nomenclature for this round of elections.
"Thinking about these political spaces for the 2023 presidential elections, would you vote for them, could you get to vote for them or would you never vote for them?" And it passes through the filter to the ruling party, to Together for Change and to the libertarians of Milei.
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Electoral floors and ceilings by space
Based on a national survey of 2,000 cases.
Source: Opinaia Infographic: Clarín
The coalition of Cristina Kirchner, Sergio Massa and Alberto Fernández has the worst combination: the safe vote reaches 11%, the probable 21% (which gives them a "ceiling" of 32%) and the rejection to 67%. As for this last item, it is the worst record of the series. Last October it was at 62%, in December it went to 63%, in February of this year to 65% and now it has sunk two points more.
As for Together and the libertarians, they come together. The main opposition alliance has 14% of the safe vote/floor, 40% of probable ("ceiling" of 54%) and rejection of 46%. Milei's strength, meanwhile, is left with 19% of the safe vote, 36% of probable ("ceiling" of 55%) and rejection of 45%.
The ruling party, also bad for the PASO
Then, the study presents a classic table of voting intention for the primaries of August 13, where some trends are also consolidated:
- Milei grows as the most voted.
- The ruling party disperses without Cristina and runs the risk of being left out of the runoff.
- Juntos remains up, narrowly, in this case with Patricia Bullrich above Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
Put in numbers, the libertarian candidate reaches 26%, which reaches him, alone, to be second. Above, in the sum, it is surpassed by JxC, with 12% of Bullrich, 8% of Larreta, 2% of Gerardo Morales, 2% of Facundo Manes, 1% of Elisa Carrió and 1% of José Luis Espert.
The FdT is worrying: 20% in total, by 8% of Axel Kicillof, 6% of Sergio Massa, 3% of Daniel Scioli, 2% of Wado de Pedro and 1 % of Juan Grabois.
They complete, further away: Peronism not K with 6% (4% of Juan Schiaretti and 2% of Juan Manuel Urtubey), the Left Front with 3% (Nicolás del Caño 2% and Myriam Bregman 1%), white / null 4% and undecided 14%.
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