The CSU was once a 50+x party in Bavaria. That's over - but the coalition in Munich can reach the value. The Greens are in trouble.
Munich - A good four months before the Bavarian election, the coalition of Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) is on course "50+x". In a recent survey, the CSU is stagnating – but the junior partner Free Voters has gained again. In this Sunday question, the two partners now have more than 50 percent of the total votes. The big loser of the survey, however, are the Greens.
Before the Bavarian election: Söder and Aiwanger are in the poll together over 50 percent
In the 2013 state election, the CSU under Horst Seehofer, with 47.7 percent of the vote, came close to the symbolic 50 percent hurdle for the last time. Those days seem to be over. Nevertheless, a tight race for government power in Bavaria is apparently a long way off: A recent Insa survey commissioned by Bild sees the Christian Socials stable at 40 percent. The Free Voters led by Hubert Aiwanger gained two percentage points to 11 percent.
In view of the expected votes for "other parties", the CSU and Free Voters should be able to count on a more than solid parliamentary majority even below the absolute majority of votes. Among other things, the Left Party is likely to miss out on entering parliament. But the FDP must also continue to fear fiercely: Insa sees the liberals in Bavaria currently at exactly 5 percent.
+Markus Söder (right) and Hubert Aiwanger at a press conference. (archive image)
© IMAGO/Frank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON
Bavaria poll: Greens lose significantly
The worry lines of the Bavarian Greens are likely to deepen. According to these data, the state party with its figureheads Katharina Schulze and Ludwig Hartmann ranks at 15 percent - a whopping three percentage points less than in the previous survey from April. A BR poll had seen the Greens in mid-May at 16 percent. In both cases, the party is below its 2018 election result. In contrast to the CSU.
The reasons for the significant weakening are not clear from the data. However, it seems conceivable that there is a connection with the heating law and dispute of the traffic light coalition – or a lack of government prospects: Söder has already ruled out an alliance several times.
| Bayern-Poll Insa (May) | Election results 2018 | |
|---|---|---|
| CSU | 40% | 37,2% |
| Free Voters | 11% | 11,6% |
| Green | 15% | 17,6% |
| Afd | 12% | 10,2% |
| SPD | 11% | 9,7% |
| FDP | 5% | 5,1% |
Apparently, the SPD can benefit: the comrades, who have repeatedly been shaken by weak Bavarian results, are gaining one percentage point to 11 percent. But the AfD is also on the rise. The right-wing populists received 12 percent after their decision on two top candidates from the Höcke camp, one point more than in the previous month.
Bavaria election: Söder against "Last Generation" - according to the survey, possibly capable of winning a majority
Harsh criticism from parts of the competition had recently drawn the Bavarian coalition because of the raids initiated from the Free State against the climate activists of the "Last Generation" - the Left is even planning charges against politicians. According to another recent survey, however, the prosecutors' measure could be well received by the population. According to a Forsa survey for RTL and n-tv, 58 percent of people in Germany consider the measure to be correct, 37 percent to be excessive. There were no concrete figures for Bavaria.
In the new Sunday question data, these events are not yet priced in. For his current Bavaria survey, Insa said he surveyed 16,23 citizens in Bavaria from May 1 to 000. The institute gave the "maximum margin of error" at 3.1 percentage points. In any case, election polls are only snapshots - precisely because of low party ties and short-term election decisions, the data are not to be regarded as forecasts of the election outcome. (fn
)Category list image: © IMAGO/Frank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON
