Voting intention, image and electoral floors and ceilings for the PASO. All these parameters were taken into account in the surveys sent to be done by the city of Buenos Aires the days before the confirmation of Jorge Macri as candidate for head of government, in the hand to hand that measured him with Fernán Quirós.
Clarín had access to the three surveys of Aresco, Isonomía and Trespuntozero, the consultants hired by the Buenos Aires administration to measure electoral scenarios in the fourth week of May and thus define the possible successor of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, who will compete with Martín Lousteau in the primary of Together for Change.
That of Aresco, Julio Aurelio's pollster, was the first report to be analyzed in the offices of Uspallata. It was a telephone sample of 900 cases, which measured scenarios of PASO between Macri and Quirós against Lousteau.
The intention to vote for Jorge Macri, key in the definition of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta.
The first showed the former mayor of Vicente López prevailing, with a vote intention of 29.9%, 2.7 points above the 27.2% that the radical leader averaged. On the other hand, when Lousteau-Quirós proposed a hand-to-hand, the current national senator prevailed over the Buenos Aires minister by 1.8 points: 28.8% to 27%.
There was encouraging data for Quirós, however. In the "voting positioning" section, it came first, with 65.5% between those who would "surely" vote for it and those who "probably" would. In that area, Macri obtained 56.8%. But it ended up weighing more the intention to vote than the potential ceiling of each.
Isonomía was another of the consultants that went out to measure the Buenos Aires internal PRO. Its report was carried out in person, online and by telephone and includes 901 cases. The data showed percentages similar to those of Aresco, although somewhat lower.
For the pollster of Juan Germano and Pablo Knopoff, Jorge Macri reaches 24% of voting intention, just above Lousteau, who touches 23%. When the hand-to-hand between Quiros and Lousteau is measured, on the other hand, the radical prevails, reaching 24%, three points more than the 21% achieved by the minister.
Voting intention vs. floors and ceilings
Also as happened with the other report, in the section "floors and ceilings" that Isonomía measured, Quirós was in first place among the PRO candidates, with 53% among those who had decided to vote for him and among those who could. In that area, Macri reaped 48%, also below the health official.
There was a third report analyzed by the Buenos Aires government, which was prepared by the firm Trespuntozero from an online and telephone survey that was conducted on 1,030 cases. In it, Jorge Macri doubled Quirós in voting intention, achieving 26.2% against 13.1% of the Minister of Health.
The survey prepared by the consultancy led by Shila Vilker determined that Jorge Macri has 26.2% of voting intention, against 13.1% of Quirós. On the other hand, in the analysis of the image of each leader, Quirós was positioned in first place, with 55.8% of "very good" and "good" image, and a differential of + 32.2. Macri, meanwhile, obtained 50.2% positive image, between "very good" and "good", with a differential of + 20.6.
How Rodríguez Larreta's decision was conceived
The decision that Jorge Macri is a pre-candidate for head of the Buenos Aires Government was made between Monday night and Tuesday morning. First, the current Minister of Government dined with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta in an exclusive pizzeria in Palermo.
There, the current mayor of the City informed him that he was the chosen PRO to compete for his succession. At 10 a.m. on Tuesday, Rodríguez Larreta ratified it, in an announcement he made on social networks.
"This is not a decision that is made quickly, but it is a decision that is taken well and conscientiously. Both Fernán and Jorge have ample capacity to face this challenge. Jorge has a very consolidated voting intention and Fernán a very auspicious potential," said Rodríguez Larreta in a letter published on his Twitter account, entitled "The Future of the City."
And then he said: "Faced with this evidence is that, together and with the generosity of Fernán to always privilege the unity and potential of the PRO, we have decided that to guarantee the continuity of all the changes that we have carried out in the City and to work for all the challenges that still remain to be achieved, Jorge will be the PRO candidate to compete for the Head of Government of the City in the next PASO elections in August."
Since Rodríguez Larreta's decision, Jorge Macri himself showed his satisfaction in an interview with Radio Mitre. "I wanted it, and we had been talking about what this week of definition was going to be, I had confidence in the path we had been traveling and for me it is a pride today to be the only candidate of the PRO," he said.
The confirmation of Jorge Macri as a pre-candidate motivated immediate reactions within the PRO. Patricia Bullrich, Rodriguez Larreta's rival in the presidential race, was the first to tweet, simultaneously with the announcement of the head of government. And he did it with chicane included. "Congratulations @jorgemacri . I told you a long time ago. It was you. People wanted to continue the work started years ago by the PRO. Now, the polls ratify it," wrote the former Minister of Security, who has been encouraging Macri's candidacy for months and who had activities on Tuesday in Corrientes.
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