2.54 million unemployed in May: how can there be a shortage of staff?

The fence of a daycare center in Frankfurt: Not only cities and municipalities in Hesse are currently desperately looking for suitable applicants for vacancies. © Arne Dedert/dpa

High unemployment with a shortage of skilled workers at a record level: That doesn't really go together. A labour market researcher explains the background – and gives hope.

Cologne – There is no spring recovery: In Germany, 2.544 million people were unemployed in May. This is 42,000 fewer than in April, but 284,000 more than in May 2022, the Federal Employment Agency announced on Wednesday. Typically, unemployment declines in the spring because companies start hiring more workers after the winter.

Parallel to this development, there are millions of vacancies, desperate headhunters and a country that could use every helping hand. The shortage of skilled workers has reached a record level. Mathematically, more than 630,000 vacancies for skilled workers could not have been filled last year, reported the Competence Center for Securing Skilled Workers of the employer-related Institute of the German Economy in April. How can that be when there are actually enough people looking for a job?

Enzo Weber knows the reasons for this paradox. "Actually, one would expect that more vacancies would lead to lower unemployment – but at the moment that is not happening," says the professor of economics at the Institute for Employment Research. "One reason is the recession, and the consequences of the energy crisis are slowing down the economy significantly." There are certainly positive signs. Weber: "Energy prices have fallen sharply again. However, it will take several months for this effect to really take hold."

Unemployment and job vacancies: it's not because of excessive demands

The labour market researcher wants to dispel a myth in principle: The fact that so many jobs are unfilled is not due to exaggerated expectations of young workers. "The narrative of the super-educated, hip person who only accepts an 80 percent job with full pay is simply not true. Laziness is not a decisive factor when we talk about the reasons for unemployment," says Weber.

There is another group that worries Weber: the long-term unemployed. "The longer someone is unemployed, the smaller the chance of getting back into a job." In addition, there is the stigma, which not only burdens the unemployed themselves, but is also a hindrance to the job search. "They take a close look at the hiring process: He's been unemployed for three years now, so there must be something fishy. In reality, this is often not true at all," says Weber. Around 180,000 people in Germany have been unemployed for at least one year. "That's more people than before the Corona pandemic. This shows how the problem is getting worse," says Weber.

Ukrainian refugees distort labour market statistics

But there is also a development that gives Weber courage that it is possible to achieve both: filling vacancies and reducing unemployment. "Germany has taken in a large number of Ukrainian refugees. They are in language and integration courses. Currently, this distorts the statistics. Integrating these people into the labour market afterwards is a great opportunity to fill vacancies," says Weber.

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It would possibly be the symbolic end of a long-lasting period of problems: first the pandemic, then the war in Ukraine and, above all, the climate crisis. "The ever-changing crises have not made it easy for everyone involved: employers and employees alike have suffered as a result," says Weber.

Nevertheless, the expert is optimistic about the future. Also because he knows what the past looks like. "We used to have five million unemployed in Germany, and we were able to halve that number. Every further step becomes more and more difficult, because you will simply never manage to ensure that there are no more unemployed. Full employment is reached at two to three percent," says Weber. For those who find their way back to work, Weber has an encouraging message: "The risk of becoming unemployed is lower than ever before. The companies are doing everything they can to keep their people."